TOP HALF
1st QUARTER: The question on everybody’s mind is whether or not Novak Djokovic can sustain the kind of awe-inspiring momentum he displayed in 2011, when the Serb went 70-6 in capturing 10 titles, including three Slams (Australian Open, Wimbledon, U.S. Open), five Masters 1000 crowns and the No. 1 ranking. While it’s hard to imagine him matching that kind of output, we must remember that this isn’t the Novak Djokovic of old, the sometimes fragile competitor who had a tendency to run out of steam in big-match moments. Having improved nearly every aspect of his game, he’s now as ferocious a competitor as they come. Some, like seven-time Slam champ Mats Wilander, now put him up there the best movers of all time. But even the Hall of Fame Swede can’t imagine a repeat performance. “I don’t think he can sustain,” he told Inside Tennis. “I think he can sustain winning a major every year. I think he can win two majors for a couple of years, potentially three. But I don’t think he can sustain the grind. I can’t see it. I think it’s better for him if he can’t. Winning Miami, Indian Wells — that should mean nothing to him. It has to mean less to him.” Nole likely won’t be tested until the third round in Australia, where he could face the still-pesky-after-all-these-years Czech Radek Stepanek, and could meet either emerging Canadian Milos Raonic (who’s coming off a win in Chennai) or American Andy Roddick in the fourth. Roddick, 29, who fell out of the year-end top 10 for the first time in a decade, is looking at a possible matchup of former No. 1s in a second-round encounter with home-country favorite Lleyton Hewitt — a match that would surely be a hyped happening in and around Melbourne. But even with the presence of fellow Serb Janko Tipsarevic, Frenchman Richard Gasquet and the tenacious Spaniard David Ferrer, it would seem unwise to bet against Djokovic in this quarter.
OUR PICK: NOVAK DJOKOVIC
2nd QUARTER: Andy Murray appeared to get an across-the-board thumbs-up when he hired Czech-American legend Ivan Lendl as his new coach. On the surface, it seemed a gamble. Lendl has spent more time on the golf course than on the tennis court in recent years. But who would better know the Brit’s current predicament than a guy who came up empty in his first FOUR Grand Slam finals. Murray is now 0-3 when reaching finals at the majors (and 0-9 in sets played), and while at 24 there’s little need to panic, the Scotsman would love nothing more than to get the proverbial monkey off his back. “There’s still plenty of time Andy Murray to win a major, but he doesn’t want plenty of time,” said ESPN analyst Darren Cahill. “He wants to win now. That’s why he’s making the steps to employ someone like Ivan — to try to squeeze that extra four or five percent out of his game, to give him that experience in the big moment to know and have a clear head about how he should be approaching those big matches.” The world No. 4 opens with a stiff test against ahead-of-his-years American Ryan Harrison, and will have to sift through the likes of dangerous floaters Xavier Malisse, Ernests Gulbis or Alex Bogomolov, Jr. to book a fourth-round encounter with either Serbia’s Viktor Troicki or France’s Gael Monfils. No easy task. There are seven Frenchman alone in this quadrant, and should he survive the fourth round, Murray would be looking at a possible quarterfinal against Messieurs Gilles Simon or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, or Japan’s Kei Nishikori, who, after a win over Djokovic and a run to No. 26, has apparently parted ways with mentor Brad Gilbert. Team Murray-Lendl will be put to the test early.
OUR PICK: ANDY MURRAY
BOTTOM HALF
3rd QUARTER: Roger Federer was aghast. With not one but TWO two match points to fend off, he figured his opponent would take a conservative approach. Instead, Novak Djokovic went for broke. Deep into the fifth set and with a trip the 2011 U.S. Open final on the line, Djokovic stepped into the Swiss’ first serve, took a huge no-margin-for-error hack at the ball and blasted an outright return winner. The Ashe Stadium throng, which had clearly been backing the five-time USO champ Federer, jumped ship and threw their boisterous support behind the new No. 1. Oh, the momentum shift. Federer would have another chance, but a crosscourt forehand clipped the tape and sailed long. And just like that, the match was gone. Following the stunning 6-7(7), 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 7-5 loss, Federer seemed shocked that the Serb would have the temerity to roll the dice the way he did. He almost seemed offended. “I never played that way,” he said. “I believe in [the] hard-work’s-going-to-pay-off kind of thing…For me, this is very hard to understand how can you play a shot like that on match point.” But while Djokovic’s masterful return will go down as one of the gutsiest shots in Slam history, it may also prove a pivotal point in Federer’s career. Just look at his post-Flushing results. The 16-time Slam champion went 17-0, including a pair of Davis Cup wins and three tournament trophies, the all-important Barclays ATP Tour Finals among them. Suddenly, the 30-year-old father of two, whom many were ready to usher into retirement, looks like a hungry player poised for a big year. “[It] was incredibly important for him to finish last year well,” said Cahill. “After the disappointment of the U.S. Open and being so close to making it through to another final and the way that was taken away from him, it was really important for him to go off, clear his head, get back on court and feel like he can still match up with these guys. He’s not getting any younger, and every moment for him is an opportunity for him to keep on telling himself and convincing himself he has another major two in his game. He was stunning at the end of last season.” Some eyebrows were raised when Fed pulled out of Doha with back woes (something you don’t see very often from the seemingly always healthy Swiss), but he says he’s rested and ready for the AO. “For me, it’s far too early to be drawing a red line through Roger Federer’s name,” Cahill continued. “I still see him as a guy who’s capable of winning [in Australia]. Normally, he plays extremely well on these courts. He has a great fitness trainer [Pierre Paganini] who’s been with him for many, many years. The back issue is a bit of an issue because it’s been with him now for a number of years…[But] I’m sure over the last week and a half or 10 days, he’s had extensive treatment to get that as good as he possibly can. For me, there is still another Slam or two in Roger.” Federer has to be pleased with his draw. Outside of serving sensation Ivo Karlovic, Austrian Jurgen Melzer, Spain’s Fernando Verdasco, on-the-rise Aussie Bernard Tomic or Ukraine’s Alexandr Dolgopolov, Roger would seemed destined for a quarterfinal matchup with either Juan Martin Del Potro or American hopeful Mardy Fish, who closed out 2011 with a career-high year-end ranking of No. 8. Could this (again) be The Year of Roger?
OUR PICK: ROGER FEDERER
4th QUARTER: Is it just us or does Rafael Nadal seem a bit burned out these days? Hard to blame him if that’s the case. Not many guys could, year after year, compete with such reckless abandon and still be walking. Maybe it was those SIX losses in finals to Djokovic last year, but whatever the case, 10 Slams into his Hall of Fame career the Mallorcan is coming off like a guy who needs a well-deserved break. In fact, Rafa says he’s planning on closing up shop for all of February in order to rest up. (Makes you wonder why he would bother to play an altogether meaningless event in Doha, where he lost to Monfils in the semis. Could it be the money?) But don’t count him out Down Under. Especially with his draw. There are no less than SIX qualifiers in his quarter, including his first-round match. Beyond a likely third-round head-to-head with suddenly relevant Donald Young, all that stands between the lefty and a semifinal showing are potential meetings with the likes of Croat Ivan Ljubicic, countrymen Feliciano Lopez and Nicolas Almagro, Argentine David Nalbandian, Swiss Stan Wawrinka, player-to-watch Grigor Dimitrov, slumping Czech Tomas Berdych or American John Isner. Hardly pushovers, but when he’s firing on all cylinders, Nadal’s a level above them all. Isner may provide the biggest obstacle (he is 6-foot-9 after all), especially knowing that he hung with the clay-court king for five sets last year at Roland Garros.
OUR PICK: RAFAEL NADAL
SEMIS: DJOKOVIC DEF. MURRAY, FEDERER DEF. NADAL
FINAL: FEDERER DEF. DJOKOVIC
FIRST-ROUNDERS TO WATCH:
ANDY MURRAY VS. RYAN HARRISON
FERNANDO VERDASCO VS. BERNARD TOMIC
JURGEN MELZER VS. IVO KARLOVIC
MARY FISH VS. GILLES MULLER
VIKTOR TROICKI VS. J.C. FERRERO
MICHAEL LLODRA VS. ERNESTS GULBIS
JANKO TIPSAREVIC VS. DIMITRY TURSUNOV
