U.S. Open Draw Analysis: The Women

yle=”color: #0000ff;”>1st QUARTER

Question: When does a player have their best shot at a Grand Slam title? Answer: When Serena Williams is on the sidelines. “With Serena out, that really changes the entire element of the tournament,” observed Brad Gilbert. You can be sure former U.S. Open champs Maria Sharapova and Svetlana Kuznetsova, plus ’09 finalist Caroline Wozniacki, are acutely aware of the 13-time Slam champ’s absence (and Justine Henin‘s, too). All three have had strong summers (Wozniacki won Montreal, Kuznetsova won her first title in 10 months in Carlsbad, and Sharapova reached back-to-back finals in Stanford and Cincy), but unfortunately, only one of them will reach the semis, as all three find themselves in the top quarter of the draw. The No. 1-seeded Wozniacki is looking at a possible fourth-round matchup with Sharapova, with the winner likely facing a quarterfinal clash with Kuznetsova, Na Li or Yaroslava Shvedova. Is Wozniacki ready to take the next step? Or will Sveta or Masha’s experience prove the difference?

OUR PICK: MARIA SHARAPOVA

2nd QUARTER

If ’08 finalist Jelena Jankovic plans on shedding her rep as one of the best players never to have won a Slam, she better find her form on the quick. Just when it seemed the Serb had rediscovered her game after a precipitous fall from No. 1, she’s struggled this summer and hasn’t won consecutive matches since Wimbledon. Not the USO warm-up she had in mind. She’ll have a decent look at the quarterfinals with only ’09 semifinalist Yanina Wickmayer as an obstacle, but could then face Agnieszka Radwanska, Nadia Petrova or Wimbledon finalist Vera Zvonareva, who’s coming off the Montreal final.

OUR PICK: VERA ZVONAREVA

BOTTOM HALF

3rd QUARTER

The lone Williams sister in the draw, Venus is a big question mark having not played since Wimbledon and not won a non-grass-court Slam since the ’01 U.S. Open. But she’s got a decent draw up to the quarters. In the third round, the 30-year-old might just have another crack at upset queen Tsvetana Pironkova, who handed her a shocking 6-2, 6-3 loss in the Wimbledon quarters. Should Venus win that enticing rematch and get past Flavia Pennetta, Agnes Szavay or Shahar Peer to the quarters, she would likely face the hungry Victoria Azarenka, who’ll first need to dispose of the likes of Roland Garros titlist Francesca Schiavone, Melanie Oudin or Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. The super-shrieking Belarusian has had shoulder problems (among other ailments), but dazzled with her power game in winning Stanford and looked strong in Montreal before retiring in the semis. If the world No. 11 stays healthy and focused, it could be her tournament. “I don’t feel the same way about Venus,” said Mary Carillo. “Clearly, she can still win majors in doubles and continue to be a force on grass, but it’s been a while since she’s come close to winning a major off the Wimbeldon grass.”

OUR PICK: VICTORIA AZARENKA

4th QUARTER

Defending champ Kim Clijsters really couldn’t have asked for a better draw, with only Petra Kvitova, Jie Zheng, the struggling former No. 1 Ana Ivanovic and the diminutive Marion Bartoli standing between her and the quarters. Possible quarterfinal opponents include Roland Garros runner-up Sam Stosur, who’s struggled of late with an arm injury (she pulled out of Cincinnati and Montreal) and has never played beyond the second round in Flushing; Russian Alisa Kleybanova; Slovak Daniela Hantuchova; freefalling former No. 1 Dinara Safina or the steady but Slamless Elena Dementieva. Look for a Dementieva vs. Clijsters quarterfinal, with Clijsters advancing.

OUR PICK: KIM CLIJSTERS

SEMIS: ZVONAREVA DEF. SHARAPOVA, AZARENKA DEF. CLIJSTERS

FINAL: AZARENKA DEF. ZVONAREVA

1st ROUNDERS TO WATCH

DANIELA HANTUCHOVA VS. DINARA SAFINA

VANIA KING VS. CHRISTINA MCHALE

ANA IVANOVIC VS. EKATERINA MAKAROVA

ALLA KUDRYAVTSEVA VS. YANINA WICKMAYER

COCO VENDEWEGHE VS. SABINE LISICKI

SAM STOSUR VS. ELENA VESNINA