Bill Simons and Vinay Venkatesh
Can Alexander Zverev avoid shocking the tennis world?
No, we’re not referring to his early battles with his management, his stunning 2020 run to Olympic gold, his relentlessly whacking an umpire’s stand in Mexico, or the two claims of domestic abuse that still hover.
No, we’re referring to the fact that in two of his last three French Opens he’s created gasps. In the 2022 Roland Garros, midway through an epic battle with Rafa, his ankle buckled and he suffered the most excruciating on-court injury we can recall.
And today in Paris there again were gasps, when the German, who just won the Italian Open and is No. 4 in the world, drew Rafa, the most dangerous floater in tennis history, in the first round. OMG!
Bad luck Sascha, bad luck Rafa, and bad luck tennis fans all over the world, who want to relish every Nadal moment they can until the singular king of clay retires to his Mallorca estate.
Luck may well be the most under-appreciated element in tennis. Sure, luck seems so random – so wretched or wonderful, so obvious or subtle, so asymmetrical, intermittent and out of our control.
At its core, tennis is largely about strokes, technique, mental toughness, physicality, athleticism and hard work. There are some observers who are “luck deniers.” Pat McEnroe said, “No, no. There’s no luck. You can’t have luck in one career, or even in one year. It doesn’t exist.” Andy Roddick added, “Maybe people that are unlucky just need to get better.” But most contend that luck is embedded in many elements of the game.
Kazakhstan’s Alexander Bublik claimed, “Luck is 20-30% of tennis: one day you hit a big serve to the T and it’s an ace, another day the ball is out and you lose the match. Skills are important, but when two players with similar ranking face off, luck matters maybe 50, 70%.”
The biggest element of luck in tennis is the draw. Brad Gilbert noted, “There’s nothing like a cushy draw.” Tennis historian Richard Evans warned us, “Never underestimate the luck of the draw.” Ryan Harrison’s career was seriously hobbled by endless tough draws. For 18 years, ATP hopefuls had to cope with the dominant Big Three.
Rafa himself conceded, “I have had the luck to be able to make my hobby into my work and to do it in a prominent way. I feel super fortunate for everything that I have experienced in life. I could ask for absolutely nothing more. I hope that in some way I’ve been a positive example for the next generations, which I think is the most important.”
Yes, there’s more luck in golf than any other sport this side of poker. One errant hop spells the difference between a birdie and a triple boogie. At the Masters a decade ago, Tiger hit a brilliant shot right at the pin, but it hit the pole and careened into a water hazard.
Still, when it comes to luck as a factor, tennis is not that far behind golf. Wretched injuries, unfair scheduling, let cords, quirky weather, weird bounces, surface and ball speeds and freak accidents all matter. About 5% of ATP matches are won by players who’ve won fewer points than their foes.
Virginia Graham claimed, “Good shot, bad luck and hell are the five basic words to be used in tennis.” Mary Carillo suggested, “In a big match, it can come down to execution or luck.”
At the 1989 US Open, Californian Derrick Rostagno was up two sets over Boris Becker and on the brink of a huge upset. He only had to put away a routine volley. But Boris got a lucky net cord, the ball jumped over Rostagno’s racket and Becker went on to win the match and the Open.
At the 1991 French Open, Jim Courier was getting hammered by Andre Agassi. But then there was a rain delay. Courier got coached up, while Agassi’s coach Nick Bollettieri schmoozed with the media. The momentum switched and Jim was soon giving a victory speech in French.
No one in tennis has been more fortunate than Marc Rosset. After losing early in the 1998 US Open, the Swiss man stayed in New York and at the last minute chose not to take the fatal Swiss Air Flight 111 that killed 229 people. In a huge understatement, he said, “I feel a little lucky.”
Agassi contended, “Luck plays a part in a match and a tournament. Bad luck can play a part in a career. But I don’t think luck can necessarily make a champion. Good luck can make a good career great…But bad luck can rip it all away. An injury here, a wrong step there – I lost six to eight months because of a wrist injury that came by hitting a piece of rock in the desert with a shovel. If I’d been a little left or right, it would have hit sand.” He added that the luckiest thing that ever happened to him was meeting his trainer and counselor, Gil Reyes.
Golfer Gary Player expressed a core reality: “The more I practice the luckier I get.” Amelie Mauresmo’s t-shirt was even more succinct: “Make your own luck.” Roman philosopher Seneca said, “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”
Tracy Austin observed, “It’s not a coincidence that champions come through in the later stages. They’re able to elevate and make their own luck.” Nick Bollettieri said, “People say you make your luck, and it evens off in the end. But it’s when the luck happens. They say if you’re a champion, you should win the match no matter what. But some people are born with a horseshoe up their a–. I’m probably one of the guys.”
Before her own fortunes plummeted, Simona Halep contended, “You cannot do much without luck. But you also have to work for what you desire. Then luck, if you are positive, comes next.”
But not always. Austin’s career was derailed by a car accident. Venus Williams has had to combat Sjogren’s Syndrome. Maureen Connolly fell from a horse. The careers of so many, including Rafa, Dominic Thiem, Juan Martin del Potro, James Blake and Jennifer Capriatti have been battered by injuries.
In contrast, no other tennis duo has had more luck than the Bryans. They’re twins, so they have built-in practice partners. They had brilliant tennis parents, and Bob’s a big-serving lefty while right-handed Mike has great returns and volleys. “Our career has been a storybook,” said Mike, who often played with a lucky 1959 penny taped on his wrist. “You’ve put yourself into position to be lucky. Good players get lucky…It’s lucky to have a clone who you can practice with every day and have the same goals and dreams. Once I asked Bob, ‘What did we do to deserve all this luck? We’re winning every break point, let cords are going our way, we’re winning super breakers…We won the coin flip every time all summer – it’s crazy.’ You make luck by working hard and feeling you deserve it in the big moments. Then you have a peace of mind, and can focus. When you haven’t done the hard yards, you feel undeserving.”
To the late coach Peter Burwash, “Luck is a matter of one word: karma. In the end, when it’s your turn, everything comes to you. And if it doesn’t, it’s okay.”
To Indian Leander Paes, who will soon enter the International Tennis Hall of Fame, “Luck and karma are two different things. Karma is a big part of life. Some people believe that your life is written out – just execute it…Sometimes losing a match can be lucky – it teaches a lesson. Something negative can also be good karma. Every single thing happens for a reason. There’s a reason why, despite doing everything right, you didn’t win any of the 14 breakpoints you had. You never know why things show up – probably to teach us something.”
Over the past two decades the ATP’s Big Three, along with Andy Murray tagging along, have dominated. This was bad luck for many – and the Big Four have had their share of luck, too. Djokovic, almost by chance, was discovered in a remote mountain town by Yugoslavia’s top coach. But Novak’s tumultuous US Open, where he got kicked out for flicking a ball at a lineswoman, and his 2021 Australian Open misadventure, where he got kicked out of the country due to his Covid stance, were kind of bad luck.
As a young boy, Nadal’s uncle Toni told the kid to play left handed – how lucky! But hobbling injuries have diminished Rafa’s career.
Andy Murray was lucky that his mum Judy was a leading player in Scotland, and even more fortunate that, as a fifth grader, he ducked under a desk and survived a school mass murder that killed 17. More recently he was less lucky, struggling with a bum hip.
Conventional wisdom says Federer is the luckiest champion in tennis history: near-perfect body, flawless technique, sublime movement, good health and generational timing. At one wet Wimbledon, Roger rested for six soggy days as his foes battled it out. An Aussie broadcaster commented, “Roger’s as perfect a human being as you can get.” Nikolay Davydenko claimed, “Federer’s always lucky.”
Then again, late in his career, Roger’s knee betrayed him. And, lest we forget, there was that monster forehand cross-court return of serve Djokovic blasted on the line to stave off a match point in the 2010 US Open semis. After losing, Roger said, “Novak just got the lucky shot at the end – and off you go.”
He added, “You can get lucky on big points – a let cord at break point could be a huge momentum swing. It’s rare. But if you get a break, you have to go on and win the match…You can push bad luck away by playing tough, by having belief and putting unlucky things behind you. It’s very mental. The margins are so, so slim…Your opponent needs one net cord or something so silly…But you get second chances sometimes…Umpires don’t have that much of a say like they do in soccer. It feels like it’s on your racquet.”
Roger told Inside Tennis, “I’m lucky to play the sport. I never predicted my career to be as good as it’s been. I don’t know how much luck was involved…Many players say, ‘You always get lucky.’…Sometimes players find comfort in blaming losses on bad luck.”
After falling to Justine Henin in three straight majors, Serena said the Belgian “made a lot of lucky shots.” Following a terrible French Open loss to Steffi Graf, Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario sniped, “She was very, very lucky. She had some late calls and hit some lines on some important points. I was in control and played really well, but I was not lucky.”
Others appreciate their good fortune. Italian Flavia Pennetta said, “When you’re a bit older you understand how lucky you are. Not everyone can do the job they like…Yes, sometimes I miss my family, but as a player, life is never boring. We travel and make friends all over the world.”
Photographer Cynthia Lum reflected, “I wake up every day and thank the universe for the good luck of having my life, career, friends, family and a strong healthy body. I believe in luck. Many have luck and talent, but the key is showing gratitude for that luck and talent. Hard work is what leads to success.”
