THE MEN
1. Rafael Nadal The Spaniard’s best season ever, winning his first non-clay-court Slam at Wimbledon, taking his fourth straight Roland Garros, winning the Olympic gold and five other significant crowns. While he was clearly worn down after Beijing and was forced to miss the Tennis Masters Cup and the Davis Cup final, no other player scored as many impressive victories over top rivals. His ‘09 goals should be to win a hard-court Slam, and his best chance will come in Australia, after his right knee has healed and he’s had seven weeks of rest. The 22-year-old has improved his all-around game enough for a long stint at No. 1, but if the lefty doesn’t schedule himself more carefully, he could run himself into the ground by the age of 26, a la Bjorn Borg.
2. Roger Federer Had a good year by most players’ measures, but not a great year by the Swiss’ amazingly high standards. A brilliant, gutsy U.S. Open run all but saved his year, but a lingering case of mono and improved play by the likes of Nadal, Djokovic and Murray brought him back to the pack. He’s just one major short of Sampras’ all time mark of 14 and should tie it in ‘09. But at 27, he’s likely on a one Slam title per year pace and for all of his creativity and know-how, breaking the American’s mark with increasing miles on his tires in ‘09 will likely prove too difficult.
3. Novak Djokovic Stellar beginning and end of the season for the sturdy Serb, winning his first Slam at the Aussie Open and then putting a cherry on top with the Tennis Masters Cup title. He’s a bold sort with a take-no-prisoners ‘tude, but at times he gets himself into trouble by being too boastful and confrontational. If he can keep his emotions in check, he’s good enough to challenge for No. 1 in ‘09.
4. Andy Murray Pressure continues to increase for the multi-talented Scot, who beat Fed three times in ‘08, reached his first Slam final in N.Y., and won two Masters Series. He’s a tremendous shotmaker and competes hard, but despite his trademark biceps-flex after winning matches, the thin man can get worn down. If he can improve another 5 percent and avoid long, early-round matches, his first Slam crown should arrive in ‘09. If it occurs at Wimbledon, watch the normally staid fans tear the (currently in storage due to construction) Fred Perry statue down.
5. Nikolay Davydenko Understated veteran Russian pops his baldhead up in big events with relentless, tireless performances about four times a year and then weaves his way back into the woodwork. Doesn’t have the personality of a great champ, but he’s worked diligently to transform himself into an excellent all-around player. He’s peaked at the age 27, but it will be a long while before he slips way down the rankings chart.
6. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Had he managed to play a full season, the leaping Frenchman almost certainly would have finished ahead of Davydenko, but a knee injury submarined him during the summer. About as exciting a player as the tour has seen in some time, and if the 23-year-old can keep healthy — which he’s never been able to do — his blowtorch serve, forehand and aggressive net game will make him a consistent threat.
7. Gilles Simon France may not have a stable of great players, but it sure does have a phalanx of very good players, highlighted by the once-obscure Simon, a quick, fast-handed player who makes the most of his tools. The 24-year-old doesn’t have the physical strength to be a dominant player, but he anticipates well and should be able to push into Slam second weeks in ‘09.
8. Andy Roddick ‘08 was the first time since ‘02 that Roddick finished out of the year-end top-six. Didn’t play badly, but rarely found the confidence level that brought him to No. 1 in ‘03. He’s simply being out-moved by better players. While on a great day he can still out-punch about anyone, those moments are few and further between and given how good some of the youngsters are getting, Roddick could slip out of the top 10 by the end of ‘09. If Roddick’s new coach, Larry Stefanki, can get him to play to his strengths rather than trying to cover up his weaknesses, he should be heard from in substantial way for at least one more year.
9. Juan Martin Del Potro ‘09 will prove whether the tall and fierce-hitting Argentine has the goods to be a top-five player. Physically, the towering 20-year-old is almost there, even though he still needs to polish his attack. Mentally, he needs to adapt to the world’s biggest stages, which he wasn’t able to do last year.
10. James Blake Given what a ho-hum year it was for the vet (he reached two finals and three semis), it’s amazing he finished ranked this high, but he did reach a ton of final eights. Will turn 30 at the end of ‘09 and could loose some speed, so he’d better put up some huge results. Blake can play powerful, creative tennis, but needs to tone it down and play smarter. If not, he could end his career having failed to reach a Slam semi.
THE WOMEN
1. Jelena Jankovic Became the first Serbian in history to end the year at No. 1 and really went hard to grab the top ranking after Wimbledon. Even though she frequently complains about nagging injuries, she shows up week after week and punches the clock, mostly with a positive attitude. She’s by no means a standout No. 1, but she’s a terrific defensive player who can capably mix in high-octane offense. Does have the tools to win her first major, but she cannot afford to play scared at crunch time like she did in Paris and New York.
2. Serena Williams For those who have closely followed the younger Williams’ career, ‘08 is the season where she deserved the heartiest pats on the back, as she drove herself harder than she ever has in order to snare another major. After eight months of fits and starts and some tough losses, all her hard work paid off when she won her third U.S. Open title. Williams all but packed it in after that, but with a continued commitment, she should win her 10th Slam in ‘09 and then will have all but sewed up the unofficial title of being the best player of an extremely good generation.
3. Dinara Safina Tremendous four-month stretch that included runs to the French Open and Olympic finals and titles in Berlin, L.A. and Montreal showed that in tiptop shape, the tall Russian is capable of greatness. But while she picked up her chin at some of the year’s biggest events, she also fell short, which indicates that she’s not bubbling with self-belief yet. In ‘09, it’s up to Safina to take a page from her Slam-winning brother Marat’s book and close the deal.
4. Elena Dementieva Finally achieved one of her biggest goals by winning the Olympic gold, but at 27, the fleet Russian likely doesn’t have more than two years to meet her other two goals, reaching No. 1 and winning a Slam. Showed in Beijing that she is capable of both accomplishments, but she has to put her nose and mind to the grindstone for an extended period if she doesn’t want to retire a barely decorated competitor.
5. Ana Ivanovic Sweet-as-pie Serbian roared out of the ‘08 gates, reaching the Aussie Open final, winning Indian Wells and her first major at the French. But after sustaining a thumb injury prior to Wimbledon, she collapsed mentally and wasn’t really heard from until the end of the year. Even then, she did little to impress. If she improves her serve and comes to the net more, Ivanovic should be primetime contender at every Slam. But as bright as she is off court, she doesn’t play smart nearly enough. Must open her mind to new strategic possibilities in ‘09.
6. Venus Williams It’s a virtual toss-up between Venus and Serena for Player of the Year honors, but by winning her fifth Wimbledon title at the season-ending WTA Championships, Venus grabbed two of the year’s six biggest crowns, which no other player was able to do. The 28-year-old is no longer a dominant player, but when she’s healthy and employing her spiced-up net attack, she’s as good as any other player. But it would be nice to see her win another hard court Slam in ‘09, a feat that has eluded her since ‘01.
7. Vera Zvonareva One of five Russians in the top 10, Zvonareva rediscovered her love of competition and fought as hard as she ever has in her career in ‘08. Somewhat introverted, she has no love of the biggest stages, but she’s ferocious inside the baseline and can take down any elite competitor when she’s not being touted as the favorite. ‘09 will tell the tale as to whether she can withstand the pressure of being an elite player again.
8. Svetlana Kuznetsova Truly disappointing year for the ‘04 U.S. Open champ, who ended the year without a title and then waved goodbye to her longtime coaches at Spain’s Sanchez-Casal academy. Now she has gone back to her Russian roots by returning home in the off-season and hiring Olga Morozova to coach her. Hopefully, Morozova will be able to pull the self-confidence that Kuznetsova has been sorely lacking out of her student’s stubborn head.
9. Maria Sharapova Season began brilliantly with her third Grand Slam title at the Aussie Open, an astounding first appearance on the Russian Fed Cup team and first clay court title in Amelia Island ended miserably when she suffered a shoulder injury and was unable to compete past the first week of August. The only positive that might arrive from being unable to serve during most of the fall is that she’ll be forced to improve her all-around game. But if the world’s most endorsable women’s athlete doesn’t come back at full strength, she’ll be hard-pressed to snare the No. 1 ranking. But if her shoulder does heal, grant the ultimate fighter another Slam title in ‘09.
10. Agnieszka Radwanska The only teenager in the top 10, this scrappy Pole is much tougher inside than her ever-present smile would indicate. Doesn’t have huge overall weapons, but plays smart and steady and understands her weaponry. Doesn’t look like she’s Slam-winning material, but if she grows in confidence and hits out on key shots, a visit to the top five isn’t out of the question.
