By John Huston
NOVAK IS BACK: If anyone had any doubts whether Novak Djokovic would pick up where he left off in 2016, his ruthless, brutal 6-1, 6-2 dismissal of Rafa Nadal in the Doha final surely dispelled them. The only player to defeat Novak at a Slam last year, Stan Wawrinka, is over in the other half with one of most challenging draws of the top seeds, while Novak looks to have smooth sailing until at least the quarters. Clearly he’s an overwhelming favorite to win his 11th Slam at the place where he won his first.
SERENA THE ENIGMA – AND THE SHARAPOVA JINX? The Aussie Open has been a home away from home for Serena Williams – it’s where she effectively started the second act of her career with a heroic march to victory in 2007. She’s won 6 of her 21 Slam titles in Melbourne. But she comes into this year’s tournament with lingering question marks about her knees, no competitive play since last September, and a draw that doesn’t do her any favors. Beginning with quick-draw Italian Camila Giorgi, it progresses through fiery teen Jelena Ostapenko in the second round to gal pal Caroline Wozniacki in the fourth round and either Belinda Bencic (who beat Serena last fall) or Maria Sharapova in the quarters.
Superstitious minds should also note that while Serena thoroughly owns Sharapova, her Grand Slam luck runs bad when Sharapova lands in her quarter. The last four times it’s happened – Aussie Open and French Open in 2012; Aussie Open and Wimbledon in 2014 – Serena has failed to win the tournament.
FIRST-ROUND FIREWORKS: A Spanish showdown pits rebounding Rafa Nadal against sometime nemesis Fernando Verdasco in an update of their famous 2009 semifinal epic, while former finalists Jo-Willy Tsonga and Marcos Baghdatis also face off. Other first round match-ups of note: slightly green US upstart Noah Rubin vs. flashy Frenchman Benoit Paire; erratically brilliant Kei Nishikori vs. dangerous veteran Philip Kohlschreiber; giant Jerzy Janowicz vs. big John Isner, and Andy Murray vs. teen whiz Alexander Zverev.
On the women’s side, one matchup stands out: gone from the game since her loss to Roberta Vinci at last year’s US Open, Serena steps back on court to face the go-for-broke power tennis of Camila Giorgi, another Italian.
VIKA VICTORIOUS? Vika Azarenka had the misfortune of colliding with an all-time great on a title mission in two Slams last year, but she still gave Serena her toughest matches at those tournaments. This year Vika burst out of the gates with a win in Brisbane, and even though it was her first title in over two years, some began touting the two-time Aussie Open champ as a title favorite.
ROGER AND RAFA, THE LATE YEARS: Though the inimitable Swiss master stayed near the top in 2015, he had an early exit in Melbourne last January, when he lost to the Italian Andreas Seppi. He’s parted ways with childhood hero Stefan Edberg and picked up former foe Ivan Ljubicic (who went 3-13 against him on tour) as a new coach. Their first tournament together concluded with a straight-set loss to Milos Raonic. He may face the eccentric shotmaker Alexandr Dolgopolov in the second round, and the third round is a potential duel against onetime heir apparent Grigor Dimitrov.
Now back on the brink of Big Four status, Rafa appears to be righting the ship after a year of frustration. His draw, however, may be the toughest of the top seeds’. He begins against Fernando Verdasco, who beat him on a hard court last year.
WEEK ONE MATCHES TO WATCH OUT FOR: On the men’s side, the second round could bring a Croat showdown between 2014 US Open winner Marin Cilic and teen phenom Borna Coric, while the third round potentially includes: Federer vs. now-aging Baby Fed Grigor Dimitrov; a power-ball battle between Nick Kyrgios and Tomas Berdych; rising American Jack Sock against the heavyweight hitting of Stan Wawrinka, and Aussie bad boy Bernard Tomic up against flashy Italian Fabio Fognini. The winner of the latter may face Andy Murray in what promises to be the fourth round’s marquee match.
On the women’s side, Agnieszka Radwanska and a suddenly resurgent Eugenie Bouchard might meet in the second round. Currently trending upward, Sloane Stephens could take on Serena slayer Roberta Vinci in the third round, while a reinvigorated Vika Azarenka might face last year’s breakthrough player, No. 3 seed Garbine Muguruza, in the fourth.
MADISON TIME, OR SLOANE SENSATION? Last year’s Aussie Open was Madison Keys’ coming out party, as she outgunned the big babe tennis of Petra Kvitova and Venus Williams en route to the semis. This year she’s without Lindsay Davenport as coach, but her draw contains opportunity – possible third-round opponent Ana Ivanovic is out of form, and a fourth-round encounter against second seed Simona Halep would give her the chance to test Mirjana Lucic-Baroni’s proven thesis that it’s possible to blast the smaller Romanian off the court.
Melbourne was also the site of Sloane Stephens’ arrival on the big stage back in 2013. Never at a loss for a quip, Sloane welcomed the arrival of her “first final” of 2016 after defeating previous bugaboo Caroline Wozniacki in Hobart. Going on to win the tournament, she said new coach Kamau Murray was “going to think he’s coach of the year – but he’s not.” Her first serious challenge might come in the third round, against Roberta Vinci.
QUALIFIERS TO QUEUE UP FOR: Qualifiers on a hot streak can be dangerous at any Slam, and the Aussie Open in particular rewards players who’ve set out to make a strong start-of-the-year statement. SoCal teen Taylor Fritz is being touted by insiders as the best US men’s prospect since Andy Roddick. Japan’s teen Naomi Osaka has a big serve, a bigger forehand and the bravado to match. Tamira Paszek’s backhand has caught fire and she’ll be dangerous for any first-round opponent. Tim Smyczek had a role in one of the most dramatic matches at last year’s Aussie Open (a sporting five-set loss to Rafa Nadal).. He and recent US hopeful Ryan Harrison have both qualified, and Stanford grad Nicole Gibbs made the main draw without dropping a set.
DANDY ANDY AND STAN THE MAN: Three times Andy Murray has come to the brink of victory in Melbourne, before running into an inexhaustible Novak Djokovic. This year, as No. 2 seed, his draw includes a possible fourth-round marquee match against Bernard Tomic, and a potential semifinal against Rafa Nadal, Milos Raonic or Stan Wawrinka. The last player to defeat Djokovic at a Slam and always a tough ask for the Serb, 2014 champion Wawrinka has landed in perhaps the toughest quarter – he may have to face Jack Sock, Raonic and Nadal in succession just to reach the semis.
WHO WILL HAVE A HOT HAND? Players such as Fernando Gonzalez, Jo Wilfried-Tsonga and Dominika Cibulkova will attest that the Aussie Open is a fine place to peak and grab the spotlight. Will Milos Raonic – fresh from his first victory over Federer – make the big leap to a Slam final, or will the men’s and women’s draws reveal some bigger surprises?
LLEYTON’S LAST STAND: The ever-dogged Lleyton Hewitt begins his final Aussie Open campaign against a fellow Aussie, James Duckworth. If he wins he’ll likely play David Ferrer in what could be a late-night marathon grind-fest between two of the tour’s all-time best counterpunchers. Expect blood, sweat and maybe even tears.
