By John Huston
CAN RAFA BREAK THE CURSE? Eight wins in nine tries—Rafael Nadal’s record at the French Open is already the stuff of legend. His only loss at the French, against a possessed Robin Soderling in 2009, came when he was trying for his fifth title in a row. He’s matched Bjorn Borg’s four successive wins not once, but twice. Now Rafa’s bidding for that elusive record-breaking fifth in a row once again, but his clay form this year has not been worthy of his name. His last match going into Roland Garros was a loss to an ascendant Novak Djokovic, he owes his Madrid title to Kei Nishikori being injured on the brink of victory, and even his title at a smaller event in Rio involved fighting off match points on the way. Will Rafa raise his game on the red dirt to bite the trophy? For once, if he says he’s not the favorite, it might be true.
NOVAK’S QUEST: The French Open is the one major that Novak Djokovic hasn’t won. There is no doubt he has his eyes on the prize, and that it would return him to No. 1 in the world is just icing on the cake. Fresh off a victory at the Italian Open, he now has the momentum, when just a month ago a wrist injury was throwing his whole clay season in doubt. Some note that Federer won his sole French Open when his partner was expecting, and Nole’s in that situation today. But Roland Garros has been ill-starred for Djokovic in the past. In 2009, he played one of the greatest-ever three-set clay matches (against Nadal in Hamburg) just before Paris, only to bow out meekly early on in the tournament. In more recent trips to Roland Garros, he’s faced personal loss (the death of early coach Jelena Gencic) and been foiled by rains, tell-tale overzealousness at the net, and a resurgent player by the name of…
ROGER FEDERER—THE GAME-CHANGER: Strange to say it about an overwhelming fan favorite—especially in Paris— who many just happen to deem the Greatest of All Time, but Roger Federer steps into the French Open as a bit of a potential spoiler. In 2012, he snuffed Djokovic’s attempt at claiming a non-calendar Grand Slam, and he’s on course to meet Nole in the semis once again this year. In the press room, Federer is prone to wisecracks these days, and this free-swinging quality is evident on court, too, since he’s overcome nagging back woes and gotten comfortable with his new racket. Then there’s the fatherhood factor: now that he’s dad to not one but two sets of twins, will the paternal boom distract him or inspire him?
HOW’S THAT FOR UNLUCKY? Roland Garros has never been overly kind to Americans, but spare a thought for Robby Ginepri. The 31-year-old from Georgia has clawed his way back from a career-threatening injury to claim the US men’s wild card, only to draw…Nadal. Ginepri appears to have inherited the Grand Slam main draw luck of fellow southerner Ryan Harrison, who fell in qualifying this time.
STAN’S NEXT STEP: It may sound funny, but consider this: the French Open is Stan Wawrinka’s next step in a quest to win the Grand Slam in 2013. (After all, Stan’s the only man who still can.) Since collecting his first major at Melbourne, Wawrinka’s been erratic, with a number of early-round losses and a clumsy Davis Cup performance, but also his first-ever Masters win in Monte Carlo—a triumph capped by a victory over Federer. Wawrinka can play on clay—the surface brought some of his best early-career results—and the courts at Roland Garros should reward both his explosive all-around power and the spinning variety of his backhand.
NEXT GENERATION, OR LOST GENERATION? At the Australian Open, Grigor Dimitrov took a step beyond being known as Baby Fed—or as Maria Sharapova’s boy toy—by reaching the quarterfinals and giving Nadal a scare. He’s in Nadal’s quarter again at the French. Milos Raonic’s game is suited to faster surfaces, but he made it to the semis in Rome. Kei Nishikori was on the verge of downing Nadal in the Madrid final before suffering yet another injury in a career already defined by them. Will one of these three finally truly break through at a major? The draw gods have not been kind: Nishikori and Raonic could meet in the round of 16 to fight for the honor of taking on Djokovic, while eleventh-seed Dimitrov has the figureheads of the Spanish Armada—Nadal and David Ferrer—in his path.
As for the next Next Generation, Australia’s Nick Kyrgios takes on Raonic in the first round, while the talented Austrian Dominic Thiem—who upset Stan Wawrinka early in Madrid—might duel with Rafa in the second.
POTENTIAL PITFALLS: In addition to Dominic Thiem in the second round, Nadal could run into two players who’ve beaten him on clay this year—Nicolas Almagro and David Ferrer—en route to the semis. Djokovic may have to face a pair of French crowd favorites—Jeremy Chardy (who ousted Federer from Madrid) and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga—before the quarters. Federer is in the same quarter as longtime nemesis Tomas Berdych.
YES, ANDY MURRAY IS PLAYING AT THIS TOURNAMENT: The seventh-seed Scot goes into his first post-Lendl Slam having taken Nadal to three sets in Rome. But the real heavy lifting is coming soon at Wimbledon.
BAD BOYS INCORPORATED: It isn’t likely to happen, but if Lleyton Hewitt beats Carlos Berlocq and Bernard Tomic beats Richard Gasquet, the past and present bad boys of Aussie tennis will rumble in the second round.
The streaky and tempestuous character known as Ernests Gulbis heads into Roland Garros in sudden strong form, with a draw that looks relatively soft until a possible fourth-round date with Federer. So… what are the odds on him going out in the first round?
ON WITH THE SHOW: Roland Garros is known for crazy, colorful, marathon epics, and in this year’s draw, one potential third-round matchup stands out: Gael Monfils vs. Fabio Fognini. To get there, Monfils will have to avoid injury, and Fognini will have to briefly control his temper. A tall ask, but if it happens, some form of zaniness will no doubt turn the dirt of Court Philippe Chatrier into a stage.
EIGHT, SEVEN, SIX, FIVE… Nadal has eight titles to his name while the US has eight men in the game at Roland Garros: Ginepri, Jack Sock, Steve Johnson, Bradley Klahn, Donald Young, John Isner, Sam Querrey, and Michael Russell. The question is by now a familiar one—who will be the last one standing, and how long will he last? It’s hard to bet against 10th seed Isner, who makes the most of his height on clay. He’s probably going to face two Frenchmen in a row though, and then Tommy Robredo in the third round if he makes it through. It’s likely to be a another whirlwind visit for the American men, who haven’t made it past even the third round of a Slam since the 2012 US Open.
