By Eran Salu
At long last, the 2014 tennis season is ready to kick into high gear, with the start of the Australian Open. Inside Tennis previews “The Happy Slam,” and predicts who will surprise us, who will disappoint us, and ultimately, who will hold the champion’s trophy.
MEN’S PREVIEW
First Quarter
Seeds: #1 Rafa Nadal, #25 Gael Monfils, #24 Andreas Seppi, #16 Kei Nishikori, #11 Milos Roanic, #22 Grigor Dimitrov, #27 Benoit Paire, #5 Juan Martin del Potro.
Americans: Jack Sock, Ryan Harrison, Donald Young, Bradley Klahn, Tim Smyczek.
Best Potential Matchups: Quarters—Nadal vs. del Potro; 4th Round— Raonic vs. del Potro; 3rd Round—Dimitrov vs. Raonic; 2nd Round—Monfils or Harrison vs. Sock; 1st Round—Harrison vs. Monfils, Nadal vs. Bernard Tomic.
Prediction: This is the “quarter of death,” with Rafa, del Potro, Raonic, Nishikori, Dimitrov, and Australian hopes Tomic and Hewitt all fighting for one semifinal slot. While we would love to predict an upset here (especially with five Americans in this quarter of the draw), it’s hard to see a scenario that does not end with Rafa taking on De Potro in the quarters. Could this be the year that del Potro cements himself as the heir to Federer in the men’s top four? If so, it’ll start with a big result in Australia.
Del Potro over Nadal in four sets.
Second Quarter
Seeds: #4 Andy Murray, #26 Feliciano Lopez, #21 Philipp Kohlschreiber, #13 John Isner, #10 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, #18 Gilles Simon, #31 Fernando Verdasco, #6 Roger Federer.
Americans: Isner.
Best Potential Matchups: Quarters—Murray vs. Federer;; Fourth Round—Murray vs. Isner, Federer vs. Tsonga; 2nd Round—Federer vs. Fernando Verdasco; 2nd Round—Marin Cilic vs. Simon, Radek Stepanek vs. Federer; 1st Round—Cilic vs. Marcel Granollers, Murray vs. Go Soeda.
Predictions: How is Murray’s back? Can Federer regain his form? Can Isner finally break through? There is no quarter in this tournament with more question marks than this one. Couple that with some very dangerous players in Tsonga, Cilic, Verdasco, and Kohlschreiber, and you have the makings for some potential upsets. It all could come down to two 5-setters in the fourth round, with Murray edging Isner and Tsonga nipping Federer. After escaping Big John, Murray gets a solid quarterfinal win.
Murray over Tsonga in four sets.
Third Quarter
Seeds: #7 Tomas Berdych, #32 Ivan Dodig, #19 Kevin Anderson, #12 Tommy Haas, #14 Mikhail Youzhny, #20 Jerzy Janowicz, #29 Jeremy Chardy, #3 David Ferrer.
Americans: Steve Johnson.
Best Potential Matchups: Quarters—Ferrer or Janowicz vs. Berdych; 4th Round—Ferrer vs. Janowicz; 3rd Round—Haas vs. Anderson; 2nd Round—Chardy vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov; 1st Round—Johnson vs. Adrian Mannarino, Ivan Dodig vs. Ivo Karlovic.
Predictions: Arguably the five most dangerous players (Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, Del Potro, and Federer) are not in this quarter, leaving Ferrer, Berdych, Haas, Janowicz ,and unseeded but dangerous Dolgopolov to battle for a semifinal slot. In the end, the winner of Ferrer vs. Janowicz should beat Berdych in the quarters.
Janowicz over Berdych in three sets.
Fourth Quarter
Seeds: #8 Stanislas Wawrinka, #28 Vasek Pospisil, #17 Tommy Robredo, #9 Richard Gasquet, #15 Fabio Fognini, #23 Ernest Gulbis , #30 Dmitry Tursonov, #2 Novak Djokovic.
Americans: Sam Querrey, Michael Russell.
Best Potential Matchups: Quarters—Wawrinka vs. Djokovic; 4th Round—Wawrinka vs. Gasquet; 3rd Round—Wawrinka vs. Pospisil; 2nd Round—Gasquet vs. Nikolay Davydenko; 1st Round: Gulbis vs. Juan Monaco, Querrey vs. Santiago Giraldo
Predictions: This quarter could well be called the “Novak Djokovic invitational,” as only Wawrinka would seem to have a shot against the reigning champ. As great as it would be to see another Djokovic/Wawrkinka classic, it won’t happen at this tournament. Look for Pospisil or Gasquet to upend Wawrinka, with Novak enjoying an easy quarterfinal win over either of them.
Djokovic over Gasquet in three sets.
Semifinals and Final
I see this tournament coming down to Djokovic and del Potro, with Djokovic having an advantage, because he’ll have spent less energy getting there. After heroic wins over Nadal and Murray, del Potro will lose a tough five-setter to Djokovic in the final.
Semifinals: Djokovic over Janowicz in four sets; Del Potro over Murrray in five sets.
Final: Djokovic over del Potro in five sets.
How the Americans will fare
There are nine US men in his year’s draw, not including potential qualifiers. Here’s a rundown of their chances:
John Isner:—4th Round. Isner has made great strides under Coach Mike Sell, but beating Murray in Australia is probably a bit too much to expect.
Jack Sock—3rd Round. Sock may be America’s best young prospect in the men’s draw. Look for him to defeat Tobias Kamke (who beat Steve Johnson in the first round at the US Open) and Gael Monfils in tight matches to get to the third round. However, his tournament will end in three quick sets against Rafa.
Sam Querrey—2nd Round. Querrey has all the talent to advance far in this tournament. Look for a solid first-round win over Giraldo, but I can’t see him beating Gulbis in round 2.
Donald Young— 2nd Round. After a banner year in 2012 and a horrific year in 2013, I see Young back on the upswing, with a surprising win over Robin Haase. Next comes a competitive match against Hewitt, but it won’t end with a win.
Ryan Harrison—1st Round. It feels like Ryan Harrison is due for a big win and beating Gael Monfils in the first round would be his biggest to date. I don’t see it happening—look for Monfils to advance in five tough sets.
Bradley Klahn—1st Round. I like Klahn and think he will win big matches in the future. However, at this stage, beating Dimitrov is not realistic.
Steve Johnson—1st Round. His first-round match against Mannarino could go five sets, which is not good for Johnson. Look for Mannarino in a tight one.
Michael Russell—1st Round. Russell is always competitive at Slams, but a win over Dmitry Tursonov is unlikely.
Tim Smyczek—1st Round. His first opponent, Roberto Bautista Agut, just beat Jack Sock and lost a tight three-setter to Isner. This does not bode well for Smyczek.
WOMEN’S PREVIEW
First Quarter
Seeds: #1 Serena Williams, #31 Daniela Hantuchova, #17 Samantha Stosur, #14 Ana Ivanovic, #12 Roberta Vinci, #18 Kristen Flipkens, #30 Eugenie Bouchard, #5 Sara Errani.
Americans: Serena, Madison Keys, Sachia Vickery, Lauren Davis.
Best Potential Matchups: Quarters—Williams vs. Errani; 4th Round—Williams vs. Stosur; 3rd Round—Stosur vs. Ivanovic; 2nd Round—Vinci vs. Keys; Stosur vs. Tsvetana Pirnokova; 1st Round—Vickery vs. Davis, Flipkens vs. Laura Robson.
Predictions:
Serena is going to be a heavy favorite in any quarter, and this one is no different. If Sam Stosur can finally overcome her Aussie jitters, look for her to give Serena a spirited fight in the 4th round before losing a tight two-setter. Madison Keys could make a run here, but that run would end against Serena.
Williams over Keys in two sets.
Second Quarter
Seeds: #4 Na Li, #26 Lucie Safarova, #22 Ekaterina Makarova, #15 Sabine Lisicki, #9 Angelique Kerber, #23 Elina Vesnina, #28 Flavia Pennetta, #6 Petra Kvitova.
Americans: Venus Williams, Alison Riske.
Best Potential Matchups: Quarters—Li vs. Kvitova or Kerber; 4th Round—Li vs. Lisicki; 3rd Round—Venus vs. Lisicki; 2nd Round—Pennetta vs. Monica Puig; 1st Round—Venus vs. Makarova.
Predictions:
It’s hard to bet against Na Li at the Australian Open, but this quarter has some real danger in it. Look for the winner of Li vs. Lisicki in the fourth round to emerge as the overall winner.
Li over Kerber in two sets.
Third Quarter
Seeds: #8 Jelena Jankovic, #32 Magdalena Rybarikova, #21 Sorana Cirstea, #11 Simona Halep, #16 Carla Suarez Navarro, #20 Dominika Cibulkova, #25 Alize Cornet, #3 Maria Sharapova.
Americans: Varvara Lepchenko, Vania King, Bethanie Mattek-Sands.
Best Potential Matchups: Quarters—Jankovic vs. Sharapova; 4th Round—Sharapova vs. Cibulkova; 3rd Round— Sharapova vs. Cornet; 2nd Round—Lepchenko vs. Halep; 1st Round—Petkovic vs. Rybarikova, Cibulkova vs. Schiavone, Sharapova vs. Mattek-Sands.
Predictions: I don’t see Sharapova being tested in this quarter. Look for Jankovic to be her final opponent here. Cornet, Halep, or Cibulkova could be sleepers.
Sharapova over Jankovic in two sets.
Fourth Quarter
Seeds: #5 Agnieszka Radwanska, #29 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, #24 Kaia Kanepi, #10 Caroline Wozniacki, #13 Sloane Stephens, #19 Svetlana Kuznetsova, #27 Jamie Hampton, #2 Victoria Azarenka.
Americans: Stephens, Hampton, Christina McHale.
Best Potential Matchups: Quarters—Azarenka vs. Radwanska; 4th Round – Stephens vs. Azarenka; 3rd Round – Stephens vs. Kuznetsova; 2nd Round—McHale vs. Wozniacki; 1st Round—Kanepi vs. Garbine Muguruza, Wozniacki vs. Dominguez-Lino.
Predictions:
This is an intriguing section of the draw, with veterans Azarenka and Radwanska taking on three young up-and-coming Americans. In the end, experience wins out over youth, and Azarenaka and Radwanska play a classic for the semifinal berth.
Azarenka over Radwanska in three sets.
Semifinals and Final
Look for tight matches in the semis and final, with all four players capable of taking the title. At some point you have to believe Azaranka will beat Serena in a Slam final. I think it happens here.
Semifinals: Azarenka over Sharapova in three sets; Serena over Li in three sets.
Finals: Azarenka over Serena in three sets
How the Americans will fare
There are twelve US women in this year’s draw, not including potential qualifiers. Here’s a view of their potential results:
Serena Williams—Runner-up. Azarenka gets the best of Serena Down Under.
Madison Keys—Quarterfinals. Keys is due for a breakhrough, and her draw here will make it a real possibility. Look for big wins over both Vinci and Errani.
Sloane Stephens—4th Round. Sloane made her name by beating Serena at this tournament last year. She may be carrying a wrist injury, though, and the pressure will be on.
Christina McHale—4th Round. On the rebound from mono, she could upset Wozniacki in the 2nd round before losing at tough one against Radwanska in round 4.
Jamie Hampton—3rdt Round. Hampton should get two wins against lower-ranked opponents before running into Azarenka—who she tested here last year—in round 3.
Lauren Davis—2nd Round. The tiny, tough Davis will beat Sachia Vickery in a battle before dropping a tight three-setter to Errani in a section of the draw dominated by compact baselines.
Varvara Lepchenko—2nd Round. Should defeat Tsurenko in the first round, but Halep will be too tough in round 2.
Sachia Vickery—1st Round. The US wild card will be on the losing end of a competitive first-round match against fellow American Davis.å
Venus Wiliams—1st Round. Makarova just beat Jankovic at Sydney and has beaten Serena at this tournament. Tough draw for Venus.
Alison Riske—3rdRound. Her first opponent, Vesnina, is seeded, but could be injured. Riske is playing well, yet it’s hard to see her getting past Kerber.
Vania King—1st Round. She did well in a warmup tournament, but Suarez Navarro may be too much for her.
Bethanie Mattek-Sands – 1st Round. The colorful all-court player beat Radwanska in Sydney, but then aggravated an injury. Her luck took another turn for the worse when she drew Sharapova.
