By John Huston
Rafael Nadal, the undefeated hard court contender. Something about that description might sound off—you’d think that the h-a-r-d should be replaced by c-l-a-y—but going into the 2013 US Open, it’s the absolute truth. Nadal suffered a couple of losses on clay this year, and on grass he went 0-for-1. Yet on hard courts, long the bane of his career, Nadal hasn’t been beaten since he returned to the game. In fact, he seems to have built momentum from the beginning of the year, when he had to scrape through a final victory at Indian Wells that meant so much to him he hit a ball out of the stadium to celebrate. More recently in Montreal and Cincinnati, the aggressive side of Nadal’s game has been in full force. Having rocketed to number two in the world while only playing seven of the last 12 months, he’s arguably the favorite heading into this year’s tournament, though of course he’d never make such a claim.
The top seed, though, is 2011 victor Novak Djokovic, who has struggled to assert dominance ever since kicking off the year with a victory at the other hard court major, the Australian Open. Djokovic’s quarter of the draw isn’t easy, presenting at least two potential challenges before he’d even reach a possible semifinal against defending champ Andy Murray. In the third round, he might run into Mr. Sugarpova, Grigor Dimitrov, who upset him—literally and figuratively—on clay this year in Madrid. (Still, it should be noted that Djokovic easily dispatched Dimitrov a few weeks later at Roland Garros.) More importantly, in the quarterfinals, Djokovic could face another marathon battle with 2009 winner Juan Martin del Potro, who defeated him at Indian Wells this spring. A quick scan of the rest of the quarter reveals the dearth of new talent in the mature ATP. Dimitrov’s junior peer Ricardas Berankis is unlikely to trouble Djokovic in the first round. Besides young Jack Duckworth from Australia, the section is defined by journeymen (too many to name), past greats (Lleyton Hewitt, who knows how to trouble del Potro), and the occasional player with flair (Alexander Dolgopolov, Tommy Haas).
Murray’s quarter is similarly familiar-looking, with veterans Tomas Berdych, Stansislas Wawrinka, and Nicolas Almagro as his highest-ranked adversaries. Among them, only Berdych has caught fire long enough to reach a Slam final, and while the Czech Twitter comedian is fearsome on hard courts, he has a tendency to go meek in New York. If anyone in the section is poised to make a name for himself, it’s probably 17th seed Kevin Anderson, who lost a close final to John Isner in Atlanta, and who possesses the kind of huge serve that can do damage on the fast courts of Flushing Meadows. His first-round match against Daniel Brands should feature some heavy hitting. California’s Steve Johnson is in this quarter, as is James Blake, who faces off against Ivo Karlovic in the first round.
The third quarter, headed by David Ferrer, contains a bit more mystery and potential for a breakout star. In his first-round match, Ferrer takes on the equally diminutive young Australian Nick Kyrgios in a battle of the mighty mites, present and future. But elsewhere, some tall players with outsize games loom, perhaps ready to finally take that next step into the steep air of a Slam’s final days. In fact, one of them, the rough-edged Jerzy Janowicz, has already done just that, reaching the semis of Wimbledon, where he gave eventual winner Andy Murray a sizable scare. Without a doubt, it’ll be interesting to see how the sometimes volatile beanpole Pole interfaces with New York. The comparatively mild-mannered (though not free from controversy as of late) Milos Raonic has been on the verge of a breakthrough for some time now, and his draw is promising. Speaking of perpetually on-the-verge, the opinionated Ernests Gulbis, who first made waves in New York back in 2007, isn’t far from Ferrer—the two could meet up in the third round. Also nearby: Stanford standout Bradley Klahn, who parlayed recent Challenger success into a spot at the Open.
Which brings us to the Rafa and Roger quarter, take two. Back at the start of Wimbledon, fans braced themselves for a quarterfinal meeting between the sport’s top legends, but Steve Darcis and Sergiy Stakhovsky had other plans in mind, and it was not to be. Plainly speaking, the hard courts in Flushing Meadows are not as slippery as the grass at the All England Club, so it’s tempting to think that this time the pair will live up to their seeding and have their first-ever Big Apple bout. To do so, though, Rafa has to overcome a tall ask: John Isner, who has had a stellar summer. (Another American, Ryan Harrison, continues to have terrible draw luck, this time facing Rafa straight out of the gate.) At first glance, Federer’s draw doesn’t look as challenging, but it’s been five years since the five-time champ saw the winner’s circle here, and recently he’s had a string of losses to low-ranked players while also experimenting with the size of his racket. Those with an eye for the future might want to check out the first-round match of California’s Collin Altamirano, a teen prospect who just became the first unseeded player to win the US Boys 18s in the tournament’s 71 years.
