By John Huston
Though the draws were announced at Wimbledon this morning, in some ways the pivotal decision arrived a few days earlier, when the All England Club decided it would not alter Rafael Nadal’s position, placing the two-time Wimbledon champ fifth amongst this year’s men’s seeds. In addition to making Nadal’s potential path to victory more difficult, the decision meant that he would likely face either Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, or Roger Federer in the quarterfinals. Today brought the news that Nadal’s prospective foe in the quarterfinals could be seven-time Wimbledon winner Federer. Meanwhile, another men’s quarter features grass titans David Ferrer and Juan Martin del Potro as top seeds. Lopsided, indeed. With that in mind, let’s get down to analyzing some of the favorites and speculating about potential surprise forces.
First Quarter:
Top seed and 2011 winner Novak Djokovic enters Wimbledon without momentum, having skipped the grass warmups for The Championships. The early stage of his draw is not easy, particularly on the surface, where fortunes change in an instant and the Serb’s footing has sometimes been suspect. Djokovic has the highest-ranked non-seeded first-round opponent, world No. 33 Florian Mayer, whose career record on grass is better than on other surfaces. Clearing that hurdle, his route lightens until a possible fourth-round encounter with Tommy Haas, a veteran one-hander who excels on the green blades, and who took the court from Djokovic in a Miami match this spring. (Djokovic defeated Haas more recently, at the French Open.) On the other half of the quarter, 2010 finalist and Federer-upset-specialist Tomas Berdych, and 2007 semifinalist Richard Gasquet (another player whose win-loss record is best on grass) are the top seeds. Both are pigeons in relation to Djokovic, so if Djokovic builds momentum, the latter stage of his quarter (and half, for that matter) of the draw are favorable and kind,
Sleeper candidate: Feliciano Lopez, Kevin Anderson.
First-round drama: Djokovic vs. Mayer; Sam Querrey vs. Bernard Tomic.
Second Quarter:
Here is the weakest and most open section, loaded with Latin American and Spanish players who largely aren’t known for their results on grass. Fourth seed David Ferrer reached the finals of the French Open earlier this month, but promptly lost in the first round of a weak Wimbledon tuneup event. The other top seed, Juan Martin del Potro, continues to struggle with inconsistency, losing to grass nemesis Lleyton Hewitt in the quarters at Queen’s Club. So who could make an unexpected run? Seventeenth seed Milos Raonic has an opportunity to deliver his first big Slam impact, though the huge server’s grass record isn’t as impressive as one might think. Likewise, people continue to wait for the anointment of the second “Baby Fed,” Grigor Dimitrov, but his performance at Queen’s Club was far from impressive. The sixteenth seed, German Philipp Kohlschreiber, could go far.
Sleeper candidates: Igor Sijsling, Denis Kudla, Michael Llodra.
First-round drama: Kei Nishikori vs. Matthew Ebden.
Third Quarter:
Behold the heralded Fedal section of the draw. Wouldn’t it be funny if an upset derailed their quarterfinal date? If it doesn’t, stakes are high: Federer would very much like revenge on Nadal five years after the historic 2008 final; while a win against him would be icing on the cake of his GOAT status, a loss would further cast doubts upon it. Nadal’s first-round opponent, Belgium’s Steve Darcis, is a big hitter who favors grass and fast surfaces, so he’s going to have to be on his game from the get-go to avoid getting Rosoled. (Nadal trounced Darcis in their one previous meeting, though.) Fortunately for Rafa, the Lukas(z) who might await him in the second round has the last name Kubot. Reaching the third round, he could face the tricky Frenchman Benoit Paire, while the fourth possibly brings John Isner, Lleyton Hewitt, or Stanislas Wawrinka. This time, the rising Rosol landed near Federer in the draw; other players in the Swiss master’s half include rambunctious and mercurial Jerzy Janowicz, aging infamous lothario Radek Stepanek, and Nicolas Almagro. Federer’s first-round opponent is the towering Victor Hanescu, who carries bad memories of this tournament from 2010.
Sleeper candidates: Hewitt, Rosol.
First-round drama: Hewitt vs. Wawrinka.
Fourth Quarter:
One of the toughest challenges comes early for Andy Murray, who faces Germany’s Benjamin Becker in the first round. Fortunately for Murray, he just defeated Becker in the quarterfinal of Queen’s. Passing that early test, things could lighten up for him, other than a likely third-round match with Wimbledon legend Nicolas Mahut, who is carrying strong form into The Championships. (Deja vu: Murray also just beat Mahut at Queen’s.) The other half of this quarter finds 2011 and 2012 semifinalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and a resurgent Marin Cilic (who recently dropped longtime coach Bob Brett) rubbing shoulders with the mouthy, forever-on-the-brink Ernests Gulbis, and grass veterans Xavier Malisse and Julien Benneteau. A second-round match between Tsonga and Gulbis would not be boring, and Cilic has to be eager to add another chapter to his topsy-turvy Slam record against Murray.
Sleeper candidates: None.
First-round drama: Malisse vs. Fernando Verdasco; Marcos Baghdatis vs. Cilic.
