THE MEN
TOP HALF/1st QUARTER: Is it unrealistic to look beyond the ATP’s Big Four of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray?: Yes and no. Over the past 12 months, a gluten-free Djokovic, once prone to pulling out of big matches when the going got tough, has masterfully morphed his weaknesses into strengths. Despite the sore shoulder that forced him to pullout of the Cincinnati final, post-Wimbledon, there isn’t a fitter, more focused player out there. His 41-match win streak, spurred on by Serbia’s Davis Cup triumph of ’10, speaks volumes. The reigning Aussie Open and Wimbledon winner is a dominant 10-2 against his Big Four brethren this year, and his win over Nadal in the Miami final proved he’s more than capable off handling hard-court heat in blistering conditions. “The way he’s moving, the way he changes the direction of the ball, the way he defends the court, his ability to play offense and defense, getting to the [USO] final a couple of times, physically with the challenging conditions, the Saturday-Sunday back to back — all this plays well to where he’s at right now,” Tennis Channel commentator Justin Gimelstob told Inside Tennis. If he’s healthy, the top seed/world No. 1 shouldn’t be challenged until a possible fourth-round encounter with Richard Gasquet, although he’s a dominant 5-1 against the Frenchman. Further down the line could be a quarterfinal clash with either Czech big man Tomas Berdych (who recently pulled off an upset of Federer in Cincinnati) or France’s Gael Monfils; that is if the No. 7-seeded Monfils survives his opener against Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov and a possible second-rounder against former No. 1 and ’03 U.S Open runner-up J.C. Ferrero.
OUR PICK: NOVAK DJOKOVIC
TOP HALF/2nd QUARTER: In his run to the Roland Garros final, Federer showed us why he’s anything but finished. He might be 30, but the Swiss whiz doesn’t sound like a guy who’s ready to kick back in the easy chair just yet. “Guys who play for a very long time, like Andre Agassi, Jimmy Connors, Ken Rosewall, Rod Laver, it’s very inspiring to see what they’ve been able to do. My planning is always in the long-term. That’s why I’m looking forward to see how much I can achieve from this point forward,” said the 16-time Slam titlist. “Every time the U.S. Open rolls around, I’m very, very excited. I don’t feel it’s my last chance, not at all. I see many more chances to come.” Federer may have taken some uncharacteristic losses to the likes of Jurgen Melzer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (twice) in 2011, but the man who’s reached the final six out of the last seven years in Flushing Meadows is obviously comfortable on the Ashe Stadium hard courts, and should glide into the fourth round, where he will likely face a young gun in up-and-coming Aussie Bernard Tomic, American upstart Ryan Harrison or Croat crusher Marin Cilic. A Federer vs. Harrison matchup would be intriguing, considering that the bold-and-brash 19-year-old recently offered Federer some tips, asserting, “To be honest with you, I think that Federer…if he kind of had a little more fire right now, it would help him get back to the top…I think that whenever Federer plays anyone other than Rafa or Djokovic, he plays with this swagger where it’s like, ‘It’s my match, I’m going to win.’ It’s a little more uncertain when he plays against Djokovic and Nadal right now…I think if he walked out with a little more — I don’t’ want to say ego, because ego sounds bad — but just like a little more fire, then I think it would help him.” Harrison quickly realized that it’s not such a good idea to criticize perhaps the game’s greatest-ever player and sent him an apology. Federer handled Harrison, appropriately, with kid gloves, saying, “That’s his opinion [but] it doesn’t matter much to me because I know what I need to do to beat those guys…I’ve always had [fire].” The suddenly-relevant-again Radek Stepanek and Fernando Verdasco also lurk in Federer’s quadrant, but it’s likely Tsonga or U.S. Open Series champion and top American Mardy Fish who’ll be awaiting the No. 3 seeded Swiss in the quarters. This is new territory for the slimmed-down and refocused Fish. For the first time since 2002, Andy Roddick won’t come in as the top-seeded American. Instead, it’s A-Rod’s old high school hoops teammate who holds the distinction. The soon-to-be-30-year-old has never advanced beyond the quarters in NYC, but he appears to be embracing life inside the top 10. “I don’t necessarily feel like I’ll be the top American. I’ll maybe be ranked the highest, but it feels strange to say that,” said Fish, who got off to a strong summer start with a title in Atlanta, a runner-up finish in L.A. and a win over Nadal in Cincy. “I’ve gone under the radar pretty comfortably, haven’t had to answer too many critics…I could have worked a little bit harder or could have changed some things around earlier in my career. With being the No. 1 American comes a little bit of extra pressure, but it’s good pressure.” The Muhammad Ali look-alike Tsonga will likely be floating like a butterfly after back-to-back wins over Mr. Federer in London and Montreal. Question is can he sting like a bee in New York?
OUR PICK: ROGER FEDERER
BOTTOM HALF/3rd QUARTER: Murray — who’s 0-for-3 in Slam finals, losing all nine sets — is a true puzzle. A coaching shakeup initially seemed to provide a spark for the ’08 U.S. Open runner-up and his title run in Cincinnati was impressive, but as the Scot’s recent loss (a 6-3, 6-1 blowout) to the unheralded Kevin Anderson in Montreal shows, he’s still susceptible to the occasional walkabout. No matter how physically fit he is, there are still questions about the soundness of his mental game. And his forehand, too. “Look, he’s in the top four, but he’s number four out of four,” observed ESPN’s Cliff Drysdale. “If the other three guys [Djokovic, Nadal and Federer] are playing at the level they have been playing, then he’s going to stay at number four…I was very disappointed with him in the semifinal of Wimbledon because he looked, relatively speaking, like a second-class player…There are some mechanical things that need addressing…His forehand side is a very big weakness. Until he corrects that, just from a mechanical standpoint, I don’t think he’s going to be able to make a move unless he gets some luck with the draw.” It’s no secret that Murray loves playing in New York, but he could have his hands full if he wants to return to the Flushing final for the first time in three years. He’ll open against two-time NCAA singles titlist Somdev Devvarman of India, who’s hardly a pushover. And the Great British Hope will have to navigate the likes of dangerous floaters Feliciano Lopez and Stanislas Wawrinka if he is to set up a quarterfinal date with either ’09 USO champion Juan Martin Del Potro (the well-armed Argentine who shot from No. 485 back into the top 20 in a matter of six months), No. 6-seeded Swede Robin Soderling or power-serving American John Isner, who’ll open against Marcos Baghdatis. The last time Murray faced DelPo in New York (the ’08 quarterfinals), he was more than tested in a four-set 7-6(2), 7-6(1), 4-6, 7-5 win.
OUR PICK: JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO
BOTTOM HALF/4th QUARTER: Nadal, who fell to No. 41-ranked Ivan Dodig in Montreal and a resurgent Fish in Cincinnati, has raised some concerns over his left foot (which he tweaked at the All England Club) and two fingers on his right hand (which he burned on a sizzling plate in a Japanese restaurant). But the muscular Majorcan insists he’s keyed up for his USO title defense. Even if he plays at 80 percent of his full potential, it’s hard to imagine he won’t reach the semis or better. That doesn’t mean he’s got a cakewalk draw. On the horizon for the No. 2 seed is a possible third-round head-to-head with the always-tricky David Nalbandian of Argentina, a fourth-round battle with the ageless Croat Ivan Ljubicic and a quarterfinal clash with two-time semifinalist Mikhail Youzhny, L.A. titlist Ernests Gulbis of Latvia, ’03 titlist Roddick, or fellow Spaniards Nicolas Almagro or David Ferrer. “There’s like a seven-year itch in tennis, where Nadal played seven solid years without many injuries and [was] very physical,” said ESPN analyst Chris Evert. “He played such physical tennis. He makes the game look really hard the way he works. I think it’s taken a toll on him, his body, mentally, maybe a little bit of tiredness there.” Roddick and Federer are the only active players to finish inside the top 10 the last nine years running. But with a mix of shoulder and abdominal complaints, Roddick has played a limited schedule. Coming off an anticlimactic Davis Cup showing in his hometown of Austin, it’s hard to imagine that he’ll arrive in Queens as match ready as he’d like to be. He certainly won’t walk with the kind of cut-from-a-different-cloth swagger he flaunted when he took the torch from Pete and Andre in ’03.
OUR PICK: RAFAEL NADAL
SEMIFINALS: DJOKOVIC DEF. FEDERER, NADAL DEF. DEL POTRO
FINAL: DJOKOVIC DEF. NADAL
FIRST-ROUNDERS TO WATCH:
RYAN HARRISON VS. MARIN CILIC
GRIGOR DIMITROV VS. GAEL MONFILS
JO-WILFRIED TSONGA VS. YEN-HSUN LU
ALEX BOGOMOLOV JR. VS. STEVE JOHNSON
MARCOS BAGHDATIS VS. JOHN ISNER
SOMDEV DEVVARMAN VS. ANDY MURRAY
ANDY RODDICK VS. MICHAEL RUSSELL
MIKHAIL YOUZHNY VS. ERNESTS GULBIS
JULIEN BENNETEAU VS. NICOLAS ALMAGRO
RADEK STEPANEK VS. PHILIPP KOHLSCHRIEBER
THE WOMEN
TOP HALF/1st QUARTER: Without hard-court doyenne and defending champ Kim Clijsters in the draw (abdominal injury), the door has been left ajar for the likes of three-time U.S. Open champion Serena Williams, back-in-business Russo-American Maria Sharapova (who’s returned to the top five), the perpetually-poised-for-a-breakthrough Victoria Azarenka, 2010 runner-up Vera Zvonareva, 31-year-old Venus Williams (who hasn’t won a non-grass-court Slam in a decade), Marion Bartoli (who having risen to a career-high No. 9 is playing the most inspired ball of her life) and overplaying, Slamless No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki, who, despite nearly 50 weeks stop the WTA Tour charts, has been anything but dominant, suffering out-of-place losses to Christina McHale, Roberta Vinci, Julia Goerges, Lucie Safarova, etc. The top-seeded Dane and ’09 finalist will have to prove her mettle in the demanding Ashe Stadium environs as she shoots for a possible fourth-round match against Daniela Hantuchova or ’04 USO titlist Svetlana Kuznetsova. “Now maybe her father can go and start being just her father and not sort of everything to her,” said John McEnroe, referring to Wozniacki’s announcement that she is no longer being coached by her father, Piotr. “Perhaps that will help her. She plays the game as sort of a counterpuncher and she doesn’t have the firepower that some of the other top players have. That’s caught up to her.” Should she survive, Wozniacki could face Vinci, feisty German Andrea Petkovic, Estonia’s Kaia Kanepi or Roland Garros titlist Li Na in the quarterfinals. With the anything-goes state of the WTA Tour, Sam Stosur says as many as 10 players can now be considered bona fide threats in NYC: “That’s just where women’s tennis is at the moment,” explained the Aussie. “Sometimes we complain if one player keeps winning three out of the four that it’s boring…Then you get complaints now that it’s wide open and no one can really step up and do things consistently. I think it actually makes for an interesting tournament when you see someone like Kvitova come out and win Wimbledon.”
OUR PICK: LI NA
TOP HALF/2nd QUARTER: Is it possible for a player who’s been out of action for a year to be considered a favorite in the Big Apple?: Absolutely, when that player is Serena Williams. With her freak foot woes and hematoma/pulmonary embolism behind her, the three-time U.S. Open champ didn’t wait long to get back into the swing of things. In fact, SW was only 11 matches into her comeback when she stepped back into the winner’s circle at Stanford, where she beat a Wimbledon quarterfinalist (Bartoli), semifinalist (Sabine Lisicki) and finalist (Sharapova). “The most impressive thing to me was that she didn’t blast players off the court,” said ESPN’s Mary Joe Fernandez of Williams’ effort. “It wasn’t like she was hitting winners left and right. I still think she has a lot of room to improve. She looks much fitter. She worked the points, got balls in play, made a lot of returns and competed well.” Williams — who hasn’t returned to Ashe Stadium since her infamous foot-fault run-in with a shell-shocked lineswoman two years ago — echoed that sentiment, saying, “There are still shots that I’m not going for, that I’m not making, that I know I can make. I know that once I get more confident and get more match play, I’ll be able to make those. I can do more.” “If she’s there, she’s the favorite, both physically and mentally,” said Gimelstob of Williams, who added the Toronto title before pulling out of Cincinnati with a toe injury. “Let’s not forget — she’s got a lot to prove in New York. She loves the limelight. She didn’t get to play last year, and we all know what happened the year before. She’s going to come in with a level of heightened focus that’s going to be intense. She’s 100 percent the favorite.” Ain’t that the truth. No one since Jimmy Connors has played so well with a chip on his/her shoulder. Evert nailed it. Discussing Williams’ lower-than-expected No. 28 seeding at the Open (tournament officials went by the rankings, although they could have bumped her up), the 18-time Grand Slam champion said she wasn’t so worried about Williams as she was about her competition. “If she hadn’t won the two warm-up tournaments, I would say, ‘You know what, that’s fine, because they made a good judgment call.’ But you kind of wonder. It hurts the field is what it does. It really doesn’t hurt Serena as much as it hurts the other players. One of the top seeds will get her in the third round.” That likely third-round recipient? World No. 5 Azarenka. And that’s a shame, considering that they’re two of the year-end Slam’s top contenders. “I don’t think Serena was ever going to care where she was seeded,” said Mary Carillo. “I don’t think it’s ever mattered to her…For her, it’s all about where her state of mind is.” Should Williams survive (she’s 5-1 lifetime against the super-shrieking Belarusian), the 29-year-old could face Shahar Peer or former No. 1 Ana Ivanovic in the fourth round, with a chance to meet ’08 finalist Jelena Jankovic or ’10 quarterfinalist Francesca Schiavone in the quarters.
OUR PICK: SERENA WILLIAMS
BOTTOM HALF/3rd QUARTER: Outside of Serena, Sharapova may just have the best shot at the ’11 USO trophy. Having climbed back to No. 4, the ’06 U.S. Open winner recently swept Kuznetsova, Stosur, Zvonareva and Jankovic en route to the Cincinnati title and is playing with a renewed sense of confidence. Post-surgery, the 24-year-old megastar may not be the server she once was, but she hasn’t lost her inner fire and is as steely a competitor as you’ll find in the women’s game. “She’s the only other player that I see that really has the big weapons,” said Evert. “If it’s a healthy Serena, Serena’s going to win. But Maria, if anything happens to Serena as far as a loss, an upset, something happens to her injury-wise, I’d have to give the thumbs up to Sharapova because I think she’s mentally the toughest one out there.” Sharapova is looking at a likely third-round matchup with Italy’s Flavia Pennetta, a fourth-rounder against Goerges or China’s Shuai Peng, and a quartefinal against Carlsbad titlist Agnieszka Radwanska (who upset her back in 2007) or Kvitova, which would be a rematch of the most recent Wimbledon final. Kvitova has struggled since her remarkable Wimbledon result, dropping a pair of early-round decisions to Petkovic in Toronto and Cincinnati.
OUR PICK: MARIA SHARAPOVA
BOTTOM HALF/4th QUARTER: If she strikes the ball with as much authority as she did in the first half-dozen games against Serena in the Stanford final – both on her serve and from the ground — Bartoli will be a second-week threat in Flushing Meadows. The Frenchwoman clearly dictated play against the 13-time Slam champ until a hand injury all but nullified her chances. Look for the No. 8 seed to down Russia’s Maria Kirilenko in the third round for a shot at either Stosur or Nadia Petrova in the fourth. The winner could be looking at a quarterfinal against Zvonareva, Slovak slugger Dominika Cibulkova, Venus Williams or powerballing Wimbledon semifinalist Lisicki. Stosur, who reached the Roland Garros final last year, as well as the USO quarterfinals, has all the tools to make some noise at the noisiest Slam in tennis. “If you want my pick for a surprise, Sam Stosur for this tournament,” opined Drysdale. “She started to play well out in California. I’m not sure why she hasn’t done well on a hard court, but she may learn…If there’s going to be a surprise, that would be the one I’d pick.”
OUR PICK: SAM STOSUR
SEMIFINALS: SERENA WILLIAMS DEF. LI NA, MARIA SHARAPOVA DEF. SAM STOSUR
FINAL: SERENA WILLIAMS DEF. MARIA SHARAPOVA
FIRST-ROUNDERS TO WATCH:
SHAHAR PEER VS. SANIA MIRZA
FLAVIA PENNETTA VS. ARAVANE REZAI
YANINA WICKMAYER VS. SORANA CIRSTEA
EKATERINA MAKAROVA VS. MARIA KIRILENKO
PETRA KVITOVA VS. ALEXANDRA DULGEHRU
