THE MEN
TOP HALF
1st QUARTER: Let’s get something straight right out of the box: barring some unforeseen cosmic realignment, the 2011 Wimbledon champion will most likely come from The Big Four of Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Andy Murray. “You could make an argument for any one of the four to win it,” proclaimed John McEnroe. That being said, two-time winner and defending champion Nadal, who comes in as the odds-on favorite, will have his work cut out for him in the top quarter of the draw, which is chock full of power players like newcomer Milos Raonic of Canada,
back-in-business Argentine Juan Martin Del Potro, top-10 denizen Mardy Fish, fellow Spaniard Fernando Verdasco and 2010 runner-up Tomas Berdych. Should the world No. 1 survive a potential third-round encounter with Raonic (aka “The Maple Leaf Missile”), he just might meet DelPo in the fourth round — an intriguing contrast, but a match that should be won by the Spaniard. With his bone-crushing forehand and big, 6-foot-6 power game, the Argentine has proven that he can bring it on fast surfaces, but the emerald lawns of the All England Club may prove too demanding for the 22-year-old, who appears to have put wrist surgery behind him but has never advanced beyond the second round here. The resurgent Fish is a dark horse in the quarter, but the smart money will be on a quarterfinal rematch of last year’s final, which saw Nadal roll over Berdych in straight sets 6-3, 7-5, 6-4.
OUR PICK: RAFAEL NADAL
2nd QUARTER: All American eyes will be on three-time runner-up Andy Roddick, who, at age 28, only has so much time left with which to close in on the second Slam title of his career. But there are a few names in his quarter of the draw that have haunted him at the AELTC. Brit favorite Murray cut his run short in the third round in ’06; Frenchman Richard Gasquet handed him a shocking five-set loss in the ’07 quarters; and the enigmatic Serb Janko Tipsarevic sent the Texan packing in the second round in ’08. Gael Monfils, Ivan Ljubicic, Marin Cilic, Feliciano Lopez and Stan Wawrinka are in there, too. Roddick hasn’t had the easiest of years. He lost four straight matches before reaching the semis of the Wimbledon warm-up at the Queen’s Club. “I'm not going to say his window's closed, but it's just becoming so much more difficult when you're outside the top four,” said Roddick’s onetime coach Brad Gilbert. “He's probably got a much better chance of doing it there than maybe anywhere else. But as long as the top guys are winning, I just think it's that much more difficult for anybody outside of them at the moment to run the table.” Jimmy Connors, another former coach, said, “He’d have to come up with something very, very special. The other guys have gotten onto him a little bit and the big serve now seems to be coming back a lot more. The guys are getting the ball in play. They’ve figured out a way. All the guys have big serves now. Some of them are even bigger than his. So for him to win Wimbledon…he’s going to have to come up with something spectacular. I don’t know if he could do that now.” If he could, it would make for one hell of a story. But despite the home-nation pressure thrust upon him by fellow countrymen, the Scot Murray, who is coming off the Queen’s Club title and has reached two straight Wimbledon semis, is poised to chase an even bigger story — one that would see him become the first British man to win Wimbledon in three quarters of a century. To author it, he’ll have to shed his reputation as a fit-and-fast all-court gamer who has all the tools but gets passive when push comes to shove. After all, when you look at the five biggest matches of his life — the ’08 U.S. Open final, the ’10 and ’11 Aussie Open finals and his back-to-back Wimbledon semis, he lost all of them — convincingly. (In total, he won one of 16 sets.)
OUR PICK: ANDY MURRAY
BOTTOM HALF
3rd QUARTER: On one hand, it might be a bit deflating for Federer knowing that he gave Nadal his best in the Roland Garros final and STILL came up short. On the other hand, the Swiss can walk tall after having snapped Djokovic’s unbeaten streak in Paris while showing his critics that, though he’s pushing 30, he’s far from done. “I think he's proved you guys to be wrong,” Roger’s mom, Lynette Federer, told Inside Tennis at Roland Garros. “At the end of the day, he has to believe in himself. You guys can write what you want. We've told Roger, 'You don't have to read it. Because the more you read it, sometimes you start believing what they write. You've got to believe in yourself. You don't have to believe in the press.'” If he can perform the way he did on the terre battue, dictating play and mixing up his arsenal (how ‘bout those drop shots?), the six-time Wimbledon titlist has a real shot at his 17th Slam trophy. Standing in the way are the likes of ’02 Wimbledon finalist David Nalbandian, Mikhail Youzhny, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Alexandr Dolgopolov, David Ferrer and 6-foot-9 power server John Isner, who, unbelievably, drew an opening-round encounter with none other than Nicolas Mahut, thus booking a movie-script rematch of last year’s record-setting, three-day, 70-68-in-the-fifth marathon. What are the odds?
OUR PICK: ROGER FEDERER
4th QUARTER: Sure, Djokovic fell short of eclipsing McEnroe’s record of 42 straight wins to open the year. But make no mistake about it: this has been the Serb’s year (41-1, seven titles, 10 wins over top-five players), and as a two-time Wimbledon semifinalist, there’s no reason to think he can’t carry his momentum onto the grass. “Last year at this time, when he got to the semis, he wasn't nearly the player that he is now,” noted Gilbert. “He was really struggling with his serve and his forehand wasn't as dominant. The guy moves outrageous — like a gazelle. He's serving so much better this year. It's incredible.” The world No. 2 has to be pleased with his draw, which has him lined up for a potential fourth-round meeting with Marcos Baghdatis or James Blake, and a quarterfinal clash with Davis Cup teammate Viktor Troicki or Michael Llodra — all very winnable matches for the surging Serb, who seems to have come into his own in 2011.
OUR PICK: NOVAK DJOKOVIC
SEMIFINALS: NADAL DEF. MURRAY, FEDERER DEF. DJOKOVIC
FINAL: FEDERER DEF. NADAL
FIRST-ROUNDERS TO WATCH
JOHN ISNER VS. NICOLAS MAHUT
DONALD YOUNG VS. ALEX BOGOMOLOV JR.
IVAN LJUBICIC VS. MARIN CILIC
IVO KARLOVIC VS. JANKO TIPSAREVIC
ALEXANDR DOLGOPOLOV VS. FERNANDO GONZALEZ
KEI NISHIKORI VS. LLEYTON HEWITT
ERNESTS GULBIS VS. DMITRY TURSUNOV
MARCO BAGHDATIS VS. JAMES BLAKE
THE WOMEN
TOP HALF
1st QUARTER: Cliff Drysdale nailed it when he pointed out that Caroline Wozniacki rose to the top of the WTA charts in a veritable power vacuum, with the Williams sisters mostly relegated to the sidelines, with Justine Henin having struck her last ball, with a surgically-repaired Maria Sharapova struggling to regain her once dominant form, with former No. 1s Ana Ivanovic and Dinara Safina unable to play with any consistency. I mean, where have all the power-hitters gone? The WTA Tour's new slogan is “Strong Is Beautiful,” right? “We're sort of back to the future now because she plays more like Martina Hingis than she plays like Serena Williams,” Drysdale explained. “In a way, it's kind of nice to see that style of play return, but I don't think it's going to be for very long.” '04 Wimbledon champ Sharapova (who topped Wozniacki in Rome) will be among those gunning for the Dane in her quarter of the draw, which includes Dominika Cibulkova (who beat her in Sydney), Julia Georges (who toppled her twice during the clay-court campaign), Sam Stosur, the improving Shuai Peng and Lucie Safarova. What's jarring is that the No. 1 has already played 53 matches this year. Will she have enough fuel left in the tank to make a strong run at the first Slam title of her career?
OUR PICK: MARIA SHARAPOVA
2nd QUARTER: No doubt about it: the dominant storyline along Church Road will be Serena's return to the world of Grand Slam tennis after a one-year layoff brought on by a series of unfortunate incidents, among them a freak foot injury and a pulmonary embolism. But what can we realistically expect from her in terms of results? “When I think of Serena, I think of power. She's a level above,” said Chris Evert, who’ll serve as an ESPN analysst during the Wimbledon fortnight. But Evert also cautioned, “If you put Serena and pit her against, let's say, Azarenka, for one match right now on grass, she might be able to win it. But you pit her against two weeks and seven matches of good, solid players, and that's where the rustiness comes in. You're not going to be 100 percent all seven matches. If she has one off day with being rusty, that will be the end.” But given how absolutely wide open the women's draw is — especially without the presence of Kim Clijsters (foot injury) —Williams has as good a chance as anyone. She certainly has the experience. The 29-year-old won her fourth Wimbledon title last year (and her second straight) and has a talent for rising to the occasion in big moments. Williams showed some gumption in beating Tsvetana Pironkova 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 this week in Eastbourne, downing the same woman who took out her sister, Venus, in the 2010 Wimbledon quarters. But she was defeated by Daniela Hantuchova in the next round. It may come down to her on-court mobility and mental toughness. After such a long layoff, how well will she be able to keep her head in points when the going gets rough? Beyond a first-round matchup with Aravane Rezai lurks Maria Kirlineko, Flavia Pennetta, ‘07 Wimbledon runner-up Marion Bartoli, Agnieszka Radwanska, Ivanovic and Roland Garros champion Li Na, who, at 29, is striking the ball as well as she has at any point in her career. The Chinese woman has twice reached the Wimbledon quarters and could one up that this year with a semifinal appearance or better.
OUR PICK: LI NA
BOTTOM HALF
3rd QUARTER: “This has probably been the most open that women's tennis has ever been,” observed Brad Gilbert. “We're so used to seeing a couple of women dominate for long periods of time. At least from a fan standpoint or the fun factor, you have 15, 20 women who can win majors. And it's so hard to prognosticate on who is going to win. I thought 15, 20 women could win the French, and I didn't even have Li Na as one of them.” How true. And this quarter more than speaks to that. Roland Garros finalist Francesca Schiavone and bellowing Belarusian Victoria Azarenka sandwich a quarter that includes Hantuchova, Kaia Kanepi, Nadia Petrova, Anastasia Pevlyuchenkova, Andrea Petkovic and Shahar Peer. It’s anyone’s guess, really. Schiavone tends to let down after Paris and is really more of a slow-surface performer, and, despite her pullout in Eastbourne (groin strain) and the fact that she’s never ventured beyond the Wimbledon quarters (’09), Azarenka has a great opportunity to break through.
OUR PICK: VICTORIA AZARENKA
4th QUARTER: Venus Williams will be as rusty has her sister, but, even at 31, her five Wimbledon titles speak loudly. And wouldn’t it something if the Floridian once again wrapped her arms around the aptly named Venus Rosewater Dish? If she can stay injury-free, Williams could meet Jankovic in a third round match, the winner of which could face 2010 Wimbledon finalist Vera Zvonareva in the fourth round. Awaiting them in the quarters could be Petra Kvitova or three-time quarterfinalist Svetlana Kuznetsova.
OUR PICK: VENUS WILLIAMS
SEMIFINALS: MARIA SHARAPOVA DEF. LI NA, VICTORIA AZARENKA DEF. VENUS WILLIAMS
FINAL: SHARAPOVA DEF. AZARENKA
FIRST-ROUNDERS TO WATCH
DOMINIKA CIBULKOVA VS. MIRJANA LUCIC
ANNA CHAKVETADZE VS. MARIA SHARAPOVA
ANA IVANOVIC VS. MELANIE OUDIN
ARAVANE REZAI VS. SERENA WILLIAMS
FRANCESCA SCHIAVONE VS. JELENA DOKIC
