TOP HALF
1st QUARTER
Is it just cruel fate that Andy Roddick was a last-minute pullout (shoulder) and that four of the top U.S. hopefuls — Mardy Fish (the only American currently in the top 10), Sam Querrey, John Isner and Michael Russell — all landed in the same quarter of the draw, one that features none other than five-time Roland Garros titlist Rafael Nadal? Or was it a pipedream to expect anything from the clay-challenged Americans in the first place? Truth is, Roddick has never been one to hide his distaste for the terre battue of the Bois, and of the other four only Russell has lived to see the fourth round. And that was a decade ago. Just imagine Isner’s horror on Friday morning when he awoke to news that he had drawn Nadal in the opening round. Oh, the pain. The Spaniard recently had his 37-match clay-court winning streak snapped by Novak Djokovic, who has now defeated the world No. 1 four times in 2011 — all in finals (Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid and Rome), and he’s all but conceded his top ranking to the Serb. But as we all know, the 24-year-old has done some amazing things in The City of Lights and is likely the most dominant dirtballer of all time. Rafa will face some stiff competition in the quarter from the likes of Nikolay Davydenko, Xavier Malisse, Juan Monaco, Fernando Verdasco (a possible all-Spanish fourth-round confrontation), Grigor Dmitrov, the homestanding Gilles Simon or Robin Soderling, the back-to-back RG finalist who famously showed Nadal the exit in ’09. An intriguing Nadal vs. Soderling quarterfinal may just be in the making.
OUR PICK: RAFAEL NADAL
2nd QUARTER
Andy Murray‘s camp has been in a virtual tailspin ever since the sometimes-surly Scotsman was so one-sidedly beaten by Djokovic in the Aussie Open final. Since then, the ’09 Roland Garros quarterfinalist and three-time Slam runner-up, who’s wisely been seeking the advice of adidas man Darren Cahill of late, has taken his lumps, falling to some unlikely conquerors (Donald Young, Alex Bogomolov Jr., Thomaz Bellucci among them). But his French Open draw certainly could be worse. His first real test likely won’t come until the third round in fast rising/fast-serving newcomer Milos Raonic of Canada. But the No. 28-ranked Raonic’s game seems better suited for faster surfaces, and one would expect to see the world No. 4 face either Alexandr Dolgopolov or Viktor Troicki in the fourth round for a shot at Nicolas Almagro or Jurgen Melzer in the quarterfinals. Cahill’s presence might just prove a boon for the U.K.’s great hope. “I think that he’s not going to take any of the abuse that Andy gives out to those that he’s closest to — his coaches, et cetera,” said ESPN’s Cliff Drysdale of his sometimes TV boothmate. “And I think that’s going to help him…He’s constantly looking around and blaming the coach or the trainer or whatever. And if Darren can convince him that he’s got to stop looking for excuses, then this boy is going to win even maybe more than two Slams.”
OUR PICK: ANDY MURRAY
BOTTOM HALF
3rd QUARTER
If you’re looking for the Group of Death, this might just be it. The French-heavy quadrant (there are an astounding 11 Frenchmen here) is packed with talent, sandwiched between Spaniard David Ferrer and Swiss Roger Federer. The All-Time Slam King Federer has the unfortunate task of facing Feliciano Lopez in the opening round. Lopez had a decent clay-court warm-up, reaching the Belgrade final and pushing Federer to three tough, tiebreaking sets in front of his hometown fans in Madrid. Ferrer, who reached finals in Monte Carlo and Barcelona (losing to Nadal on both occasions), could face Frenchman Gael Monfils in the fourth round for a possible shot at Federer in the quarters. That is, or course, if Federer, who hasn’t reached a final since Dubai and is in the midst of his longest Slam dry spell in eight years, survives Lopez (he’s 8-0 lifetime against the Spaniard) and possible challenges from Janko Tipsarevic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or countryman Stan Wawrinka. Should a Federer-Ferrer quarterfinal materialize, the Swiss would be the odds-on favorite (he holds an 11-0 lifetime advantage). But some things don’t last forever. Just consider Nadal’s record against Djokovic on clay. Coming into 2011, the Spaniard was 9-0 against the Serb on the surface. Now Djokovic has won their last two meetings on dirt. Will Ferrer turn the tables on Federer in Paris?
OUR PICK: DAVID FERRER
4th QUARTER
“I’ve pretty much lost every record that I had,” John McEnroe recently said, all but waving the white flag when it comes to the industry-best 42 matches he won to kick off the 1984 season. Djokovic’s current mark stands at 37 (a run that stretches over seven titles, including his second Australian Open crown) and, with his eye on the No. 1 ranking, he doesn’t look like he’s ready to slow down anytime soon. Under normal circumstances Djokovic’s potential third-round encounter with surging Argentine Juan Martin Del Potro would be a head-to-head to drool over. But DelPo, who appeared to put his wrist injury aside, rising from the ashes to No. 27, is now dealing with hip issues and was nearly a no-show. Hard to expect much from him given the grueling demands of clay play. Plus, he opens against the always-dangerous Ivo Karlovic. Djokovic would likely face tougher tests in the enigmatic Ernests Gulbis, Richard Gasquet, Mikhail Youzhny, Marin Cilic, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez or Tomas Berdych. But this is Nole’s time. As The Guardian’s Richard Williams mused, “Djokovic appears to have ended an entire era, the one dominated by Roger Federer and Nadal, who convinced the world that they were the best tennis players ever born.”
OUR PICK: NOVAK DJOKOVIC
SEMIFINALS: RAFAEL NADAL VS. ANDY MURRAY, DAVID FERRER VS. NOVAK DJOKOVIC
FINAL: RAFAEL NADAL VS. NOVAK DJOKOVIC
CHAMPION: NOVAK DJOKOVIC
FIRST-ROUNDERS TO WATCH
FELICIANO LOPEZ VS. ROGER FEDERER
RAFAEL NADAL VS. JOHN ISNER
JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO VS. IVO KARLOVIC
SAM QUERREY VS. PHILIPP KOHLSCHRIEBER
IVAN LJUBICIC VS. SOMDEV DEVVARMAN
JUAN MONACO VS. FERNANDO VERDASCO
KEI NISHIKORI VS. YEN-HSUN LU
RICHARD GASQUET VS. RADEK STEPANEK
