TOP HALF
1st QUARTER
Rafael Nadal has twice managed a Roland Garros-Wimbledon double, an otherworldly feat Hall of Famer Bjorn Borg pulled off three years in a row. But Borg never could solve the Flushing Meadows puzzle, falling short in the U.S. Open final on four occasions between ’76 and ’81. And Rafa has never been at his best in NYC either, his best results being two semifinal appearances in seven years. In the words of Mary Carillo, “The hardest thing to do is what you’ve never done before.” Will ‘10 be the year the Spaniard completes a career Slam? If so, the top seed – who for the first time will sport an all-black Nike getup for his night matches – will need to stay healthy, step up his return game and adjust to the super-fast cement of Ashe Stadium. A quintet of his countrymen – Fernando Verdasco, David Fererer, Feliciano Lopez, Daniel Gimeno-Traver and Pere Riba — have the unfortunate pleasure to falling in the world No. 1’s quadrant, but the biggest obstacles standing between the lefthander and the semis will more likely be the enigmatic (and often erratic) Latvian Ernests Gulbis or the resurgent Argentine David Nalbandian. But if his knees hold up, pencil Rafa through to the semis (or better) for the third straight year.
OUR PICK: RAFAL NADAL
2nd QUARTER
With his triumphant run to the Toronto title (where he toppled Nalbandian, Nadal and Roger Federer in succession) Andy Murray secured a spot among the favorites in New York. But this is nothing new for the world No. 4. The ’08 finalist was the thinking man’s pick last year, when the Scot came up empty in an uninspired (oh, the body language) 7-5, 6-2, 6-2 meltdown against Marin Cilic in the fourth round. But Wimbledon heroics aside, the Big Apple is where the Murray is happiest and most relaxed, and the currently coachless all-court hustler will have a decent shot at his first Slam. Interestingly, Murray could be headed for a fourth-round clash with American Sam Querrey, who got the best of him in the L.A. final. It would be their third head-to-head of 2010. Potential quarterfinal opponents include Wimbledon runner-up Tomas Berdych (who’s never ventured beyond the fourth round in NYC, but has wins over Murray, Federer and Novak Djokovic this year), Spaniard Tommy Robredo, marathon man John Isner and Russia’s Mikhail Youzhny.
OUR PICK: ANDY MURRAY
BOTTOM HALF
3rd QUARTER
At first glance, the draw probably couldn’t have shaken out any better for Andy Roddick, now seven years removed from his lone Slam title at the ’03 USO. No Nadal, no Federer in his quarter. Plus the No. 9-ranked American is 5-1 lifetime against Nikolay Davydenko and 5-2 against Djokovic. But there are other dangers lurking, including potential quarterfinal matchups with old roomie Mardy Fish or sizzling Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis – two guys who appear to be playing the most inspired ball of their career. A lighter/leaner Fish won back-to-back titles in Newport and Atlanta, then fought his way past Murray and Roddick to the Cincy final, where he finally fell to Federer 6-7(5), 7-6(1), 6-4. Baghdatis, meanwhile, is once again resembling the player who reached the ’06 Aussie Open final. Now 25, he scalped Federer at Indian Wells, topped Verdasco en route to the D.C. final, then downed Berdych and Nadal in reaching the Cincinnati semis. A-Rod skipped Davis Cup this year with the sole purpose of concentrating on the majors. His performance in New York will reveal whether all the sacrifice was worth it.
OUR PICK: ANDY RODDICK
4th QUARTER
Neither McEnroe brother thinks Sir Roger is capable of recapturing the No. 1 ranking, but both believe he’s more than capable of bagging a few more Slams. And so do we. The man who Brad Gilbert dubbed one of the youngest 29-year-olds you’ll ever see boldly insists he’s targeting 20 Slams. The desire is clearly there. The difference may be that the fear factor that once paralyzed his opponents before they even stepped foot out of the locker room is beginning to evaporate. The more losses he takes to the likes of Baghdatis, Gulbis, Albert Montanes, Robin Sodelring and Berdych, the more players believe they have a legitimate chance against the Swiss. His hookup with Sampras sage Paul Annacone is a promising sign in that it shows he’s open to tweaking his game. Who knows? Maybe he’ll reinvent himself the way Andre Agassi did at 29. Look for a rematch of the ’04 USO final in the third round when Fed could face still-scrappy-after-all-these-years Lleyton Hewitt and a potential quarterfinal meeting with Cilic or back-to-back French Open finalist Soderling, who Federer owns on hard courts.
OUR PICK: ROGER FEDERER
SEMIS: NADAL DEF. MURRAY, FEDERER DEF. RODDICK
FINAL: NADAL DEF. FEDERER
FIRST-ROUNDERS TO WATCH:
SAM QUERREY VS. BRADLEY KLAHN (the NCAA champ from Stanford)
KRISTOFF VLIEGEN VS. JAMES BLAKE (JB’s last hurrah in NYC?)
TAYLOR DENT VS. ALEJANDRO FALLA (Colombian gave Fed a run for his money at Wimbledon)
GILLES SIMON VS. DONALD YOUNG
REDEK STEPANEK VS. JULIEN BENNETEAU
JEREMY CHARDY VS. ERNESTS GULBIS
FABIO FOGNINI VS. FERNANDO VERDASCO
DUDI SELA VS. XAVIER MALISSE
MICHAEL LLODRA VS. TOMAS BERDYCH
NIKOLAY DAVYDENKO VS. MICHAEL RUSSELL
VICTOR TROICKI VS. NOVAK DJOKOVIC
LLEYTON HEWITT VS. PAUL-HENRI MATHIEU
