THE MEN
THE FAVORITES: The two-week, clay-to-grass turnaround between Roland Garros and Wimbledon is a phenomenon unlike any in sports. It’s akin to Apolo Anton Ohno going from Olympic oval to roller derby arena; like Kobe Bryant dribbling up the Staples Center hardwood one day; backpedaling down a bocce ball court the next. But no one negotiates this surface shift better than Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, each of whom has pulled off back-to-back triumphs with Borgian aplomb.
Just how difficult is the adjustment? Consider this: After Bjorn Borg won at both RG and SW19 in ’80 (a feat he amazingly accomplished three years in a row), another 28 years elapsed before someone was able to do it again, when Nadal went back-to-back in ’08. Federer followed suit the very next year. Could we be in for another double triumph? A healthy Nadal, who came into the grass season having won 22 straight matches, is the Wimbledon favorite for ’10. But Federer’s quarterfinal setback in Paris (which snapped an incomparable streak of 23 straight Slam semis) may just prove a blessing in disguise. For starters, it gave him a few extra days rest heading into the grass-court campaign. Although he won’t arrive at the All England Club as No. 1 (now that Rafa has supplanted him), the Swiss has reached the Wimbledon final seven years running and, along with his Spanish nemesis, will be a co-favorite.
BEST OF THE REST: One senses that three-time finalist Andy Roddick has built his entire year around Wimbledon, in hopes of coming out on the winning end of a match the likes of which he played against Federer last year — a 5-7, 7-6(6), 7-6(5), 3-6, 16-14 epic. The Texan had a dismal clay campaign and confessed his limits on the terre battue. But the 27-year-old’s game is geared for the green stuff. Andy Murray will once again shoulder the hopes of a nation hell bent on producing a homegrown champ for the first time in 74 years. Will the Scot (who’ll be playing before QE2 and who’s struggled since reaching the AO final in January) wilt under the pressure? You’d have to turn back the clock to February to find Novak Djokovic‘s last title, and the Serb has looked vulnerable of late (he was downed by journeyman Jurgen Melzer at RG). Nikolay Davydenko returns from a wrist injury, but hasn’t played a match since Indian Wells and surely won’t be in top form. Juan Martin Del Potro remains sidelined with a wrist injury of his own. Two-time French finalist Robin Soderling (who took down Federer in Paris) has more than asserted himself of late, but has never ventured beyond the fourth round at Wimbledon. Lleyton Hewitt (the last man not named Federer or Nadal to win Wimbledon) is more than capable of a resurgent run (see his 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-4 win over Fed at the Gerry Weber Open), while big-serving big men like Tomas Berdych, Marin Cilic, Ernests Gulbis, John Isner and Ivo Karlovic are always dangerous on the AELTC lawns.
THE WOMEN
THE FAVORITES: When Justine Henin announced her un-retirement last fall, the Belgian said she was motivated to return after seeing Federer put the finishing touches on a career Slam. The two-time Wimbledon finalist has added an attacking element to her game and is intent on adding the only missing piece to her Grand Slam puzzle. Of course, her challengers are aplenty. The WTA Tour has been hit hard by injuries (and inconsistent play) in ’10, and no one has stepped up to dominate on a regular basis. You never know whom you might find still standing on any given Sunday. Did anyone see the Schiavone vs. Stosur RG final coming? Serena and Venus Williams are back atop the rankings at Nos. 1 and 2, which means they’ll more than likely land on opposite sides of the draw. Will they face off in the final again? Like Venus (who just turned 30), Elena Dementieva isn’t getting any younger. The Slamless, 28-year-old Russian has reached the Wimbledon semis the past two years. Can she take the next step?
BEST OF THE REST: Can anyone recall the last time two Italian women were inside the top 10? You can stop thinking now, because it’s never happened. But neither Francesca Schiavone nor Flavia Pennetta are purebred grass-courters (although Schiavone did sneak through to the Wimbledon quarters last year). World No. 3 Caroline Wozniacki has steadily improved her grass game, but the Dane may be better suited for slower surfaces. Jelena Jankovic remains WOS (Without Slam), but historically hasn’t played her best tennis on the grass (she was dismissed last year on Court 2 by Melanie Oudin). Kim Clijsters reports that her foot injury “belongs to the past.” But it’s hard to know what to expect from someone who hasn’t played Wimbledon since her semifinal showing of ’06. Pole Agnieszka Radwanska is a two-time quarterfinalist and looks primed for a breakthrough. With her shoulder and elbow problems on the wane, ’04 Wimbledon titlist Maria Sharapova appears to be hitting through the court with a bit more gusto these days and her promising (albeit brief) play in Paris could provide some confidence (she subsequently reached the Aegon Classic final). Fellow Russians Dinara Safina (the ’09 Wimbledon semifinalist who’s plummeted from No. 1 to No. 20) and Svetlana Kuznetsova (a three-time quarterfinalist) will be looking for ways to turn their years around.
