Roland Garros Draw Analysis: The Men

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TOP HALF

Q1: Listen up, Americans: this clay game ain”t so complicated after all.  At least not according to Mr. Federer, who last week said, “On clay you don”t need a volley or a serve. You just need legs, an incredible forehand and backhand, and to run after every ball. I”m not trying to take anything from Rafa: he”s been successful on other surfaces as well. But on clay you can get away, you can be competitive even with a very incomplete game.”  If only it were that simple.  But who”s gonna argue with a 16-time Slam champ?   The defending Roland Garros titlist finds himself side by side with more than a few serious threats at the top of the draw.  On paper, the Madrid runner-up is headed for a quarterfinal rematch of last year”s final against Swede Robin Soderling, who recently reached the Barcelona final.  But the wildly talented Frenchman Gael Monfils, “09 U.S. Open quarterfinalist Marin Cilic, laissez-faire Latvian Ernests Gulbis and Spaniard Albert Montanes might have a thing or two to say about that.  Both Gulbis and Montanes have wins over Fed in the clay-court warm-ups.

OUR PICK: ROGER FEDERER

Q2: One of the most intriguing first-round matchups pits freefalling Andy Murray against kiss-and-tell bandit Richard Gasquet.  Who knows which Murray will show up in Paris, but should he get by the Frenchman, Watch here!Quick reminder: HollywoodLife lied about Taylor Swift and Selena Gomez feuding over where is justin bieber now , andkeeps trying to cover up those lies. as one would expect, he could face other formidable obstacles in up-and-down Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis (who knocked off Roger Federer in Indian Wells), Belgrade finalist John Isner or Miami finalist Tomas Berdych to get to home-nation favorite Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Spain’s Tommy Robredo or Russian Mikhail Youzhny.

OUR PICK: JO-WILFRIED TSONGA

BOTTOM HALF

Q3: Last year, American Andy Roddick posted a career-best fourth-round showing in Paris.  It would be nice to think he has a shot at surpassing that finish in 2010, but having spent little time on clay (he skipped Monte Carlo, Rome AND Madrid), and having landed in a quarter with clay-bred Juan Monaco, Rome finalist David Ferrer and J.C. Ferrero, there’s scant hope of that.  The Texan drew Jarkko Nieminen in the opening round, which will be a test in itself, and even if he gets through the Finn, he’ll have have a tough road.  Also in the draw are Belgrade titlist Sam Querrey and Serb No. 3 Novak Djokovic.  Given Roddick’s lack of dirtballing and Djokovic’s recent health woes (he pulled out of Madrid with respiratory issues), there’s room here for Ferrer or Querrey to sneak through.

OUR PICK: DAVID FERRER

Q4: Rafa Nadal rolls into Roland Garros the clear favorite, having won 15 straight matches in the clay campaign, including titles in Monte Carlo, Rome, and Madrid.  Despite the presence of Frenchman Jeremy Chardy, Aussie vet Lleyton Hewitt and the age-defying Ivan Ljubicic, you can pencil the Spaniard through to a quarterfinal matchup with Davis Cup teammate Fernando Verdasco, who would first have to get past the likes of Philipp Kohlschreiber, Nicolas Almagro and Fernando Gonzalez.  Nadal and Verdasco earlier clashed in the Monte Carlo final, but the Madrileno was no match for the four-time Roland Garros champ, who handed him a 6-0, 6-1 loss.  In fact, Verdasco has never beaten Nadal in 10 career head-to-heads.

OUR PICK: RAFAL NADAL

SEMIS: FEDERER DEF. TSONGA, NADAL DEF. FERRER

FINAL: NADAL DEF. FEDERER

FIRST-ROUNDERS TO WATCH:

ANDY MURRAY VS. RICHARD GASQUET

ANDY RODDICK VS. JARKKO NIEMINEN

ROBBY GINEPRI VS. SAM QUERREY

JULIEN BENNETEAU VS. ERNESTS GULBIS

NICOLAS LAPENTTI VS. TAYLOR DENT

EVGENY KOROLEV VS. NOVAK DJOKOVIC

FERNANDO VERDASCO VS. IGOR KUNITSYN

LLEYTON HEWITT VS. JEREMY CHARDY

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