Top Half, First Quarter
Top ranked Dinara Safina is going to struggle regardless of her draw, by maybe if she can get comfortable by the third round, she’ll have a chance to battle to the semis. But that task won’t be easy, as the feisty Urszula Radwanska looms in round two, and the revived and the capable Alisa Kleybanova could be her third round foe. Should she pass those tests, the fourth round should be hers, as only Virginie Razzano and Lucie Safarova lurk, two players she can stare down on a mediocre day.
But guess who floats as a potential quarterfinal foe: Jelena Jankovic, who beat her up in the Cincy final. That’s a tall ask for Safina at this point, but Jankovic has to get there first. While the Serbian should have no trouble in her first three rounds (Alona Bondarenko, whom she could face in round three, is a B-level version of her), she could face her sometimes fierce in country rival in the fourth round, the slumping Ana Ivanovic. But AI will have to get over on Kateryna Bondarenko in the first round and likely Aravane Rezai or Sabine Lisicki in round three, who is returning from injury. Without question, Ivanovic will be pumped up to face JJ, but winning three matches in a row has been beyond her this summer, so she’ll have to prove that she belongs there first.
JJ, the 2008 finalist, is the semifinal pick here.
TANTALIZING FIRST ROUND MATCH: Lefty Safarova v. lefty Patty Schnyder, who is really struggling this year, but is still more than capable of zoning in a match or two.
Top Half, Second Quarter
There’s only one place to go first: a potential clash between No. 4 Elena Dementieva and No. 29 Maria Sharapova in round three. Sharapova should cruise to the third round, but Dementieva will likely face the winner of the up and comer match between Melanie Oudin and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, both who will want a piece of her big scalp. Dementieva took down Sharapova in the Toronto final, only her third win in 11 tries against her fellow Russian. ED is more than capable of winning the event, but she won’t face an exhausted Sharapova this time around and the three-time Slam champ should be able to dictate much more.
The winner of that match will likely face either Jie Zheng or Nadia Petrova in round four, with the thought here that it will be Zheng, as she’s had a much better summer.
No. 6 Svetlana Kuznetsova is the next highest seed in this quarter and although she’s done very little since winning the French, she took some time off to relax and should be ready to go post New Haven. She should be able to out-steady Agnes Szavay in round three and then mentally exhaust Sorana Cirstea in the fourth round. Some might think that Caroline Wozniacki will turn the tables on the Romanian after two straight defeats in round three, but I don’t, because I like Cirstea’s big match mentality more.
It’s pretty obvious to me that either Dementieva or Sharapova will reach the semis, and although I could see Dementieva taking out Sharapova in a grueling three setter, I can also see Sharapova hitting straight through her in two sets and doing the same to Svtea. My semifinal pick is Sharapova.
TANTALIZING FIRST ROUND MATCH: Melanie Oudin v. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, which pits the US’ grittiest and accomplished teen against a chatty, powerful Russian 16-year-old with top 10 potential.
Bottom Half, First Quarter
No. 3 Venus Williams could have it worse, but her road to a potential semifinal meeting with her sister, Serena, is full of potholes. After she dusts Vera Dushevina, either Bethanie-Mattek-Sands or Iveta Benasova could be her second round foe, and should she survive that, the big-hitting No. 25 Kaia Kanepi, or the up and coming Slovak Magdalena Rybarikova lurk.
Then it’s really game time in round four, as Marion Bartoli, who just beat her at Stanford, or 2005 champ Kim Clijsters, could be waiting. Clijsters has a tough first round against youngster Viktoriya Kutuzova before she might have to take on Bartoli. Aussie Open quarterfinalist Jelena Dokic is also in this segment, but she hasn’t competed in a long time and won’t be much of a factor.
No. 8 Victoria Azarenka is the second highest seed in this quarter and should reach the final eight. It’s hard to see veterans Francesca Schiavone or Na Li taking her down, but one would have to give Agi Radwanska a serious shot if she’s in the right frame of mind. Azarenka has really been battling with her on court composure since her loss to Serena at Wimbledon, so in a sense, she’s ripe for an upset, but she’s just too darn competitive and tough off the ground to stay down for too long.
Although she has very little say, and therefore doesn’t add much spice to the tour off court, in my gut, I’m feeling Azarenka winning a classic over Radwanska and then taking down Venus, whom I believe will quickly clip Clijsters and then fade.
TANTALIZING FIRST ROUND MATCH: Clijsters v. Kutuzova. Its high time the 20-year-old Ukrainian showed that she’s capable of playing on the big stage and she’ll have a big test on a show court against the wildly popular comeback mom.
Bottom Half, Second Quarter
It’s all about defending champ Serena Williams and whether she can find the form that largely disappeared post Wimbledon. She believes that it will return at a Slams and who is to doubt her given how largely superb she’s been at the last five majors? She draws US wild card Alexa Glatch in the first round, an awful occurrence for the US Fed Cup heroine. But if Glatch wants to show that she deserves a spot on the US team that will face Italy in the final, she has to put up a respectable performance against Serena here. She migght, but she won’t pull off the upset.
Serena will likely have chance at some revenge against Sybille Bammer, who knocked her out of Cincinnati, in the third round. She won’t go down three times in a row to the lefty Austrian mom. However, if Samantha Stosur makes it to round four, (and that’s no guarantee given how Stosur has gone off the boil in some key matches this summer), the strong armed Aussie certainly has a chance to take her down like she did at Stanford. But Stosur hasn’t convinced me that she has nerves to hold the fort during a Slam yet, and Serena is an excellent revenge player. Make that two pounds of flesh for Serena.
The quarters could bring a host of players Serena’s way: Vera Zvonareva, Anna Chakvetadze, Flavia Pennetta or Amelie Mauresmo. I’ll take Pennetta to get through that very even pack, but can’t see her wearing down Serena in a final eight match. Maybe earlier, but not when Williams already has four matches under her belt and has worked the kinks out.
While I wouldn’t be surprised if the glorious Ms. Williams was upset at some stage, no one in her quarter has impressed me to the point during the USO Series that I believe she can be taken down prior to the semis. Serena is the pick to get through to the final four.
TANTALIZING FIRST ROUND MATCH: Stosur v Ai Sugiyama, not only because it will feature a big server vs. an expert returner, but because the 34-year-old Sugi will be contesting her record 62nd consecutive Slam main draw match. It will be her last one before she retires at year’s end. That’s some feat, so go out and give her a cheer.
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