ROGER FEDERER
It’s hard to fathom, but just a year ago, the mighty Fed was struggling big time from an inexplicable free fall, thanks to the lingering impact of mono and a fellow named Rafa. Feeling awkward and out of place at No. 2, he stepped up at the Open, sweeping to the title past Murray, proving he still had the guns. Now, after an incredible summer season, the French, Wimbledon and the birth of twins girls, one could imagine letting up a bit on the accelerator. That would just be human, but Fed has, time and again, proven he’s superhuman and after knocking off Murray and Djokovic to win Cincy, he goes into the Open light and lean and as the favorite to win his sixth straight crown.
RAFAEL NADAL
It makes sense that the incredibly physical Spaniard with his pounding velocity and exaggerated strokes would be subject to injury. Still, the thought that this singular talent would be hobbled by a serious injury sends a shudder up the backs of fans. Of course, the Majorcan Masher, like some Euros before him, has yet to find a comfort zone in the mayhem that’s NYC. He’s only reached the semis once in five appearances and knows perhaps better than anyone how the Ashe Stadium hard courts can manhandle your knees. But he did prove in winning the Aussie that he’s found a style that suits him on hardcourts and for the first time, due to his two month layoff, he’ll enter N.Y. well rested. He didn’t play standout ball in Montreal and Cincy, but showed flashes of his former brilliance. If his knees hold up, he could join Fed in the lofty group of those who have won all four Slams.
ANDY MURRAY
Wimbledon semifinalist Andy Murray learned how to drive this year. Now we’ll see whether he can drive home the nail of victory at a tournament that has long been his favorite. After all, shouldering the hopes and dreams of your obsessive kingdom can prove a tad taxing. Maybe that’s why Murray (who has a sweet pad in Miami) is quite comfy on this side of the pond. Last year’s finalist has all the tools to win on hard courts, but has a tendency to play too defensively when he’s in trouble. He didn’t do so in waltzing to the Montreal crown, but did so in his loss to Federer in Cincy. As talented as he is, his Slam results have been disappointing this year. His performance in NYC will make or break his season.
THE OTHER MALE CONTENDERS
Clearly, Andy Roddick and US tennis needs a young guy to step up and become a consistent second week threat at the Slams. Outside of the 22-year-old Sam Querrey, no young US pro has showed that capability, which leaves it up to the Santa Monica resident to improve on his base – a huge serve and forehand – and join the conversation. The 6-foot-6 Querrey reached the Newport and Indy finals before putting down Carsten Ball to win LA, earning a career high ranking of No. 26. “I’m hoping to break through this summer,” Querrey said. “I’d like to end the year in the top 20. I want to be that guy whose in the same sentence as Roddick, Blake and Fish, who can back them up and make a run at the Open.
Speaking of tall men, while 6-foot-9 John Isner hasn’t been as consistent as Querrey, but he’s added to his repertoire and with his huge serve and improving net game, could pull off a few upsets. But the real outside threats at the USO come from the towering Juan Martin Del Potro, who took out Roddick at Washington, the always attacking Jo Tsonga, the flashy lefty, Fernando Verdasco and Croatian firebomber Marin Cilic.
WILLIAMS SISTERS
During 2000-’01 when she won back to back titles at Wimbledon and the US Open, Venus Williams was the talk of the circuit, blowtorching huge serves, crushing backhands down the line, out-legging her opponents and staring down anyone who thought they could hang with her on fast surfaces. But then baby sister Serena found her groove, became a more consistent player from the backcourt, established a more forceful forehand and although she’s never served quite as fast as the speed record holder Venus, she developed a more consistently effective serve. Serena also was more aggressive in her return games and after she completed her “Serena Slam” in ’02-’03, she had remarkably beaten Venus in four straight Slam finals and held five majors to Venus’ four. Serena hasn’t looked back and while Venus has picked up another three Wimbledon titles since then, she hasn’t been able to leap over her sister. Today, the 27-year-old Serena stands taller with 11 Slam crowns, while the 29-year-old Venus owns seven, a terrific achievement.
Venus’ career curve has a clear marker: since tearing her abdominal muscle in the ’03 Wimbledon semis, she’s won only two outdoor hard court titles, both outside of the US. She hasn’t won a US Open Series summer hardcourt title since ’02, when she won Stanford, San Diego, New Haven and reached the US Open final, when Serena finally stopped her run.
Post 2009, Wimbledon, Venus has been up and down. She demolished Maria Sharapova and Elena Dementieva to reach the Stanford final, but then Marion Bartoli shocked her. In Cincinnati, Italian Flavia Pennetta out-steadied her and then in Toronto, qualifier Kateryna Bondarenko stunned her 1-6, 7-5, 6-4.
For a woman who was weaned on hardcourts in Compton, California, she admits that she surprised that she hasn’t won a US Open in seven years. “Totally, but what can I say?” said Venus. “Other than that things have gone pretty well. [But] I definitely want to move forward.”
After beating Venus to win Wimbledon , No. 2 Serena had a chance to grab the Sony Ericsson WTA Tour’s number one ranking from Russia’s Dinara Safina prior to the Open, but failed, as she fell in the quarters of the Stanford to Australia’s Samantha Stosur, lost a second round match to Austria’s Sybille Bammer at Cincinnati and went down to Russian Elena Dementieva 7-6 6-1 in the semis of the Toronto Cup.
But Serena says she won’t be satisfied with her year unless she repeats at the USO. Given how nails-tough she’s been at the fast court majors this year, who’s to doubt her? “This is when I really want to be focused and get in a zone because you can fall just as fast as you go up,” she said. “I have to stay focused, and consistent, and most important, hungry.”
DINARA SAFINA
An irritated Dinara Safina has had enough of people questioning whether she can justify being No. 1, despite not having won a Slam. The Russian bristled when asked about Serena Williams’ comments that she’ss the people’s number one because she holds the U.S., Aussie Open and Wimbledon titles.
“I didn’t do the ranking system,” said Safina. “If she has questions, she can give these questions to the WTA who is doing the rankings. It’s the result of how you play the whole year, not just the four Slams. I’ve been playing the whole year and I’ve been having great results all through the Slams.”
Safina has won at Rome, Madrid and Portorotz and reached the Australian Open and the French Open finals, as well as the Wimbledon semis this year. However, she has been thrashed in all of those Slam matches and didn’t win a title post Wimbledon. Her ranking was also questioned by Jelena Jankovic (the same woman who tore her apart in the Cincy final), who also had similar criticisms leveled at her when she held the mantle as the top-ranked player. “If I had to pick someone after me, I’d pick Serena,” Jankovic said. “To be No. 1, you should be complete and if you are No. 1 you have to be beating the Williams sisters. I’m one of the rare players who has a positive record against [them].”
Safina, who is a combined 2-9 against the sisters while Jankovic is 8-8, said the Serb’s perception of what should define the No. 1 ranking was ill conceived. She’ll stay at No. 1 through the USO, even if Serena wins the title again and she loses in the first round. “The ranking system is not only based (on) if you beat Serena and Venus,” she said. “It’s based on how you play the whole year. “It has nothing to do with what your record is against them. Did [Jankovic beat them in the final of a Slam? No. It doesn’t count when you beat them at a Tier 4 (tournament).” The Russian insisted her first Slam title is only a matter of time. “One day it will happen.”
MARIA SHARAPOVA
The Russian transplant loves the big stage, high drama and fashion. So, of course, she relishes the U.S. Open, which she won in ’06. There is always a sidebar story with Maria’s outfits at the Open. Remember her sleek ’07 red outfit, bedecked with sparkles which didn’t last long, but she wore her black Breakfast at Tiffany’s outfit all the way to the Championship. But make no mistake about it; the year’s U.S. Open will be a huge test for Sharapova, who is coming back from a hobbling shoulder injury. While Sharapova hasn’t been racking up titles since May return, she’s scored quality wins over No. 7 Vera Zvonareva, No. 9 Victoria Azarenka and No. 12 Nadia Petrova (three times) and seems to be improving every week.
She reached the semis of the LA Championships and last Sunday, reached the final of Toronto Cup, where she fell number four Elena Dementieva 6-4 6-3.
“I think it was a really great week for me,” Sharapova said in Toronto. “Playing six matches was great leading up to the U.S. Open.”
However, Sharapova is struggling with her reconstructed service motion and her tennis fitness. Still, she has shown flashed of brilliance off the ground and is returning like a demon. It doesn’t matter if she just came back, she’s still a great player who has skills,” said Azarenka. While the 22-year-old Sharapova believes she’ll eventually return to the top, whether she can find her fifth gear by the time the Open rolls around is debatable, but with a decent draw, she’s a second week threat. “Its almost like new territory for me,” said Sharapova, who hasn’t won a title since April ’08. “With every tournament I feel physically I’m getting better and getting a good sense of the court, and movement wise, but it’s still a work in progress. I’d like to forget I was gone for a long time, but you have to put things in perspective.
KIM CLIJSTERS
Evonne Goolagong was the last mom to win a Slam when she won ’81 Wimby. Can former No. 1 Kim Clijsters join the Aussie in glory while toting daughter Jada around the circuit. After a two-year break, she bested No. 13 Marion Bartoli at Cincinnati and No. 9 Victoria Azarenka in Toronto. She convinced the Frenchwoman that she still has elite stuff.
“Two years without playing a match — it’s pretty amazing the level she has already now,” Bartoli said. “[Her] level of play is inside the top 10 already. The way she was moving and hitting and her physical strength after two years, it’s just amazing.” Jelena Jankovic concurred, “She was a great athlete and one of the best movers. If she could be No. 1 before, she can do it again.”
THE YOUNG AND RESTLESS WOMEN
Every season, much is made of the WTA’s talented youngsters, but while the current group is loaded with potential, over the past two years, none of them have reached the final of the major and it’s entirely possible that the tour will essentially remain a veteran’s lair at big events through 2010.
There’s plenty to like about promising teens and 20-year-olds alike: the hyper aggressive Belarussian Victoria Azarenka, the savvy Dane Caroline Wozniacki, the Slovakian sparkplug Dominika Cibulkova, the wily Pole Agnieszka Radwanska, the big-serving German Sabine Lisicki or the enthusiastic Romanian, Sorana Cirstea. But whether any of the can make a huge push at the upcoming US Open is questionable, because of the group, only Cibulkova has been able to reach the final four of major, at the ’09 French.
After she upset Serena to win Miami, Azarenka looked like she might be ready to win a Slam. But she fell short against Dinara Safina in the French Open and then Serena out-screamed her at Wimbledon.
The temperamental Azarenka is nothing if not intense and can scald the ball off both wings, but her decision-making remains a bit immature and she doesn’t always manage her matches well. But clearly, she can pound the ball with anyone.
” I like her mentality,” said Safina. “She knows that she’s good and she goes for it.”
Maria Sharapova, who won Wimbledon at 17, said that there’s no magic formula when it comes to determining when a particular player is ready to shine. “Some girls whom you think have a lot of potential take a lot longer,” she said. “Azarenka has a great potential to become No. 1, but it will take time.
Sharapova is a rare case, as it’s unusual for teens to break out and win majors. Some of the greats were able to do so: Graf, Seles Hingis and Serena, but many didn’t begin to peak until later, like Henin and Davenport.
The pleasant Wozniacki has won five titles, but has yet to reach the final eight of a major. While she’s a good mover, is solid off the ground and inherently smart, she doesn’t have the power to blow her opponents off the court. She also doesn’t have a tremendous amount of bravado, which is perhaps the reason why after Wimbledon, where she was beaten by Lisicki, that she decided to box to improve her quickness and a different source of inspiration. “My time will come,” said Wozniacki. ”
Some think that the fast and relentless Cibulkova has no real shot at winning a major, mostly because she’s only 5-foot-3. But she proved in Paris that she’s a real gamer and pummeled Sharapova. However, she injured a rib just before the USO and was forced to pull out.
Due to her sleight-of-hand tactics, the 20-year-old Radwanska has been compared to Hingis. With one of the biggest serves on tour, Lisicki might be the best player to come out of Germany since Graf. Cirstea is still very raw, but at the French Open and in LA, did show significant firepower.
While its debatable as to whether any of the group can win the Open, at least a couple of them should make it to the second week and without a doubt, they will continue to play leapfrog with each other to try and become the first of their generation to win a major. “It pushes you forward when you see the girls at your same age doing better, “Cibulkova said. “You say, ‘I have to do that well.'”
SERB-AND-VOLLEY
How a Balkan nation of 10 million could produce three top-3 players (two of whom were groomed in the midst of war in a converted indoor pool, no less) defies logic. (Wouldn’t China – population 1,330,044,544 – love to know, or the USA?) But since becoming the story du jour, Serbia’s leading lights have dimmed. Both Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic have struggled mightily with confidence since ascending to No. 1 in ’08, and ’08 Aussie Open champ Novak Djokovic (who wrong-headedly confronted the USO crowd last year post his quarterfinal win over Roddick) has yet to advance beyond the quarters at a Slam this year.
The 24-year-old Jankovic has failed to impress at the Slams, losing to Marion Bartoli in Australia, to Sorana Cirstea at the French Open and to Melanie Oudin at Wimbledon.
“I was playing without enjoyment and I had no passion and if you aren’t passionate and having fun it’s not the same,” she said.
But after winning Cincinnati over Dinara Safina, she believes she’s back in the elite mix again, even though in the following week in Toronto, she lost to Alisa Kleybanova 6-7, 7-6, 6-2.
“I’m re-charged,” said Jankovic, who overcame Kim Clijsters in the third round. “I know I can play and move well and compete with the top players as good as I was, if not better. The US Open is my main goal.”
Since Wimbledon, where she retired with an injury against Venus Williams, Ivanovic lost early to Australian Samantha Stosur in L.A, Melinda Czink in Cincinnati and to Lucie Safarova in Toronto.
After hiring Craig Kardon for four months, she parted ways with the American and is now working once again with adidas coaches Sven Groenefeld, as well as coach, Darren Cahill.
“I want everything to be perfect, but it can’t happen,” said Ivanovic, who has never worked her way past the fourth round of the US Open. “When I try to go toward perfection I think I can stop myself now. Now I want to go back to basics and the things that felt most natural.”
NUMBER NINES
As anniversary dates go, the nines just might have it. In ’69, Rod Laver completed his second Grand Slam with a ferocious victory over Tony Roche at Forest Hills. 1979 featured delightful all New Yorker battle between childhood buddies John McEnroe and Vitas Gerulaitis (won by the volcanic lefty), while pig-tailed teen Tracy Austin stunned Chris Evert. 1989 saw German Boris Becker win his sole title by serving-and-volleying his way past Ivan Lendl, while another German, Steffi Graf continued her ascendancy by knocking off Martina Navratilova. In ’99, Serena won her first major over by upsetting Martina Hingis, and Andre Agassi’s comeback story hit it’s highest point when he took down fellow American Todd Martin in a classic five-setter.
