TOP HALF
He seems to be weathering fatherhood quite nicely (thus far, anyway). Miraculously, the birth of his twin daughters — Myla and Charlene — hasn’t kept him off the practice courts much. He’s healthy. He’s coming off an impressive run at the Western & Southern Financial Group Masters in Cincinnati, where he got past Andy Murray (who had beaten him on four consecutive occasions) and Novak Djokovic en route to the title.
His chief rival (some lefty named Nadal) is struggling to overcome his problematic knees. And, oh yeah, he’s emerged victorious in his last five trips to Flushing Meadows. So there’s little reason not to believe that Roger Federer is headed for U.S. Open title No. 6. Or so it might seem.
But when the McEnroe Bros. recently sat down to discuss the U.S. Open, they couldn’t agree on a favorite — at least not on the men’s side. While Patrick was quick to pencil in the Swiss, John had some serious reservations. He said he thought it was too much to ask of Family Man Federer to keep it all together in the midst of such a tumultuous year. Said Johnny Mac, “His biggest challenge right now may be his twins.” His picks? The Andys. As in ’08 runner-up and newly crowned No. 2 Andy Murray or Andy Roddick, the last man not named Federer to hoist U.S. Open champion hardware.
When the draw was unveiled on Thursday, it was hard to see anyone challenging the top-seeded Federer in his quarter. He’s won his last 13 meetings with suddenly-relevant-again Lleyton Hewitt, including two decisions at the U.S. Open — the ’04 final and the ’05 semis.
He’s never lost to No. 8 seed Nikolay Davydenko, Robin Soderling, Sam Querrey, Tommy Robredo or Paul-Henri Mathieu, and one can’t imagine freefalling Flushing favorite James Blake proving much of an obstacle. A leaner, fitter Roddick — more than half a decade removed from his one and only Slam triumph but playing some of the most inspired tennis of his career under the tutelage of Larry Stefanki — also finds himself in the top half of the draw, in a quarter jam-packed with the likes of the No. 4-seeded Djokovic, Czech Radek Stepanek, Spaniard Fernando Verdasco, hard-serving American John Isner and the not-quite-ready-to-wilt German Tommy Haas. But if things go according to plan, No. 5 Roddick and Djokovic would meet in a rematch of last year’s tantalizing quarterfinal, which saw the New York crowd turn on the Serb after his 6-2, 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(5) win. Roddick’s revenge has included wins in their last three outings, the most recent a straight-sets schooling earlier this month in Montreal.
Is a Federer vs. Roddick semi in the cards? Will New Yorkers get a taste of the tennis artistry we saw on Wimbledon’s Centre Court in July, when Federer edged Roddick 16-14 in the fifth?
BOTTOM HALF
Having dropped to No. 3 in the world, Spaniard Rafael Nadal — who was sidelined for two months following his shocker of a loss to Soderling at Roland Garros — lands on the opposite side of the draw as Federer (there was a possibility the rivals would end up on the same side) in a quarter that might just produce a surprise semifinalist. The Majorcan Masher hasn’t exactly played his best tennis in N.Y. (he’s only reached the semis once in five appearances) and knows perhaps better than anyone how the Ashe Stadium cement can manhandle your knees. He’ll be tested right from the start. As fate would have it, Nadal’s first-round match will be against Richard Gasquet, who recently fought off an ITF ban following a positive cocaine test. The 46th-ranked Frenchman says he didn’t pick up a racket for two months and hardly looked his former top-10 self in New Haven, falling to Dusan Vemic 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-4 in the second round of qualifying. But Nadal would surely prefer a qualifier to the 23-year-old, who when on his game can push elite players to their limits. Also in Nadal’s quarter are France’s Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who took out Nadal in the ’08 Aussie Open semis and upset Federer in Montreal; Czech Tomas Berdych, Chilean Fernando Gonzalez; Frenchman Gael Monfils, who bested Nadal earlier this year in Doha; and countryman David Ferrer.
Should Nadal manage to sneak through his quarter, he could face No. 2 Murray in the semis (Murray upset Nadal in the semis last year). Away from the pressures of Wimbledon, Murray says he’s happiest when playing on hard courts on this side of the Atlantic. One of the best on-the-run ball strikers in the game, the sure-footed and sharp-minded Scot will be tested early, when he meets Ernests Gulbis in the first round. He should get by the Latvian, who’s fallen short of expectations of late, but will still be looking at the likes of Croats Ivo Karlovic and Marin Cilic, Swiss Stan Wawrinka, Frenchman Gilles Simon, Spaniard J.C. Ferrero and in all likelihood Argentine Juan Martin Del Potro to reach the semis. Like Johnny Mac says, Murray — runner-up to Sir Roger in ’08 — has as good a chance as any to bag his first Slam in The Big Apple.
FIRST-ROUNDERS TO WATCH:
Roger Federer v. American NCAA Champ Devin Britton
Rafael Nadal vs. Richard Gasquet
Andy Murray vs. Ernests Gulbis
Novak Djokovic vs. Ivan Ljubicic
Juan Martin Del Potro vs. Juan Monaco
Gael Monfils vs. Jeremy Chardy
Victor Hanescu vs. John Isner
Jo Tsonga vs. 18s Champ Chase Buchanan
Tomas Berdych vs. Wayne Odesnik
