Rafael Nadal has never lost a match in Paris. In fact, the four times defending champ has dropped just eight of 90 sets played there and last year, didn’t let go of one as he demolished the field. He’s as heavy a favorite as any man on clay ever, including Bjorn Borg, who won six French crowns, but never five straight. If Nadal stays healthy, his drive for five will be undeterred (see related feature).
Novak Djokovic has never beaten the Spaniard on clay, but has taken him down on hardcourts and played the lefty tough for a couple of sets in the Monte Carlo and Rome finals. But the Serbian will not only have to play just as ambitiously as he did there, but also be far more accurate. Andy Murray hasn’t beaten Rafa on dirt either, but has the will and repertoire to give him problems. But will Britain’s No. 1 want to diminish his Wimbledon chances in a two-week grind just to get to the Spaniard late in Paris. We’ll see.
As brilliant as Roger Federer has been in the past, he hasn’t won a ‘09 title at press time, much less showed the astounding form that it would take to overcome Nadal, who psychologically crushed him in last year’s final. If he actually wins the tournament over Nadal, it will go down as one of the biggest shockers ever.
Really, there aren’t any dark horse title contenders, just guys with a shot at beating Rafa’s back-up singers, like the fleet Spaniard David Ferrer, his powerful countryman Fernando Verdasco, Estoril winner Alberto Montanes, cagey Frenchman Gilles Simons, the rising Argentine Juan Martin del Potro, the ‘other’ Siwss, Stan Wawrinka and Russian vet Nikolay Davydenko. An American like Andy Roddick or James Blake is due for a 2nd week visit once in their careers, right? But let’s keep hope alive.
Earlier this year, the always-emotional No. 1 Dinara Safina yelled at her coach — after winning a set. Likewise, the enigmatic ‘04 U.S. Open champion Svetlana Kuznetsova, who is the daughter of two athletes, doesn’t want to be chided by anyone wearing a coach’s cap and in March fired her coach, Olga Morozova after she had lost in the first round of two straight events for the first time. She was pleased to be going solo for a few weeks and then hired former top ranked doubles player Larisa Savchenko to help her during the clay court season. “For me, external opinions help, but it doesn’t have to be pushy and bring me down, Kuznetsova said.
The two friends played in the finals of Stuttgart and Rome, with No. 7 Kuznetsova winning her first ‘09 title in Germany and No. 1 Safina winning her first ‘09 title in Rome, a quite impressive title run given that at the beginning of the week, No. 2 Serena Williams reminded the press that everyone knew who the real No. 1 was.
The Safina-Sveta match-up may very well be the same one the world sees in the French final, between two intense and capable Russians who believe they are better than their results have showed.
With Serena injuring her knee again, defending champ Ana Ivanovic also struggling with her knee, Venus Williams not having a strong Roland Garros in the past five years, and Jelena Jankovic frustrated with her lack of speed, Kuznetsova and Safina appear to be in the best mental and physical shape of anyone going into Paris. But there is no strong favorite on dirt, not since four-times victor Henin called it a career last May.
No. 2 Serena, who owns an apartment in Paris, says that winning her 2nd French crown is her primary goal this year, but can’t understand why the French fans “hate” her. No. 5 Elena Dementieva should already have pocketed her first Slam, but doesn’t always put up her best relentless stuff at the majors. Three time Slam champ Maria Sharapova has finally returned, but she’s never enjoyed getting a mouthful of orange dirt.
Teenagers Victoria Azarenka and Caroline Wozniacki have made hay this year, but still may be a little too immature to lift a huge trophy. French teen Alize Cornet and Spanish kid Carla Suarez Navarro are slumping, which might mean that for the first time since ‘04, a Russian girl not named Maria will be raising a Slam trophy.
