The season’s first quarter came to a resounding close at the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami, with Andy Murray dunking former junior foe Novak Djokovic 6-2, 7-5, and 19-year-old Victoria Azarenka destroying Serena Williams 6-3, 6-1. Three gigantic hard-court tournaments are now in the books — the Australian Open, Indian Wells and Miami — as well as a number of other mid-size events.
The men’s Big 4 (Nadal, Federer, Djokovic and Murray) more than proved their mettle, as they combined to win every major event of note, with Nadal taking Australia and Indian Wells, Djokovic winning Dubai, and Murray grabbing Miami. While Fed failed to win a title and is struggling more than he has at any time in his career, he did push Nadal to five sets in the Australian final and reached the Indian Wells and Miami semis. American Andy Roddick also reared his head, winning Memphis and taking out Djokovic twice, but he was unable to win a major crown.
The WTA went through one of its zaniest quarters ever, as it was without a dominant player week to week, and saw the fall off of two of last year’s shining lights, Serbians Jelena Jankovic and Ana Ivanovic. Serena did pick up her 10th Slam title in glorious fashion at the Aussie Open; Venus came through in the controversy-marred Dubai event; Russian vet Vera Zvonareva stood tall at blustery Indian Wells; and the ambitious Azarenka became the first member of the teenage pack to break though and win a significant crown. But no player was able to construct a dominant narrative, which is why the return of new mother and former No. 1 Kim Clijsters to the tour in August has such appeal. Much of the top 10 appears to be ripe for the picking.
MEN’s TOP 5
Rafael Nadal: The top-ranked Spaniard concusively proved he can wear down the field on hard courts, winning his first major on cement at the Aussie Open and battering Roddick and Murray at Indian Wells. He finally stalled in Miami, taking a somewhat shocking loss to Argentine up-and-comer Juan Martin Del Potro after being up two breaks in the third set. With a huge lead in the rankings, Nadal headed to his beloved clay, where he has completely dominated during the past four years. His all-around game has substantially improved and the 22-year-old is a legit threat to win the calendar-year Slam.
Andy Murray: Britain’s finest player now has Federer in his pocket, having smacked him on four consecutive occasions. He’s also taken down Djokovic three straight times, and is 6-2 against Roddick and 1-1 against Nadal this year. His ultra-intelligent all-court game is more consistent now, and he’s a good deal more powerful when he needs to be. In good health, the scrappy Scot is a Slam winner to be. It’s unlikely to happen in Paris, but expect a much better result from him at the French Open this year and just watch him coolly inhale the near insane expectations of his nation when he arrives at Wimbledon. He should finish the season ranked No. 2.
Roger Federer: As awful as he looked at Indian Wells and Miami in defeat, the once indomitable Swiss didn’t look too bad getting there. But his total lack of confidence in the closing moments against Nadal in Australia, against Murray at IW and against Djokovic in Miami was disturbing, but not as depressing as his own comment that no one expects him to win anymore. Federer needs a coach badly, or at least someone to convince him that his level is a whole lot better than he’s showing. Passing Sampras’ all-time Slam title total of 14 no longer looks like a walk in the park.
Novak Djokovic: The Serbian (see feature) is getting close to the level that saw him dominate the first quarter of last year, but he isn’t there yet, as his stomach is getting tied up in knots at key moments. If you toss aside his retirement against Roddick at the Aussie Open and his horrific play against him at IW, then Djokovic’s season looks decent with his Dubai title and a strident victory over Fed in Miami before he fell to Murray. But it’s time for the one-time impersonator to come out of his shell and play a bit more aggressively.
Andy Roddick: Perhaps no player has received more positive press for changing coaches so frequently as Roddick, who is now working with super motivator Larry Stefanki. Andy appears quicker, and he’s added a fine slice backhand, but facts are facts, and during his favored hard-court season, he has been unable to push through Fed or Nadal. He’ll be a happy man in April, when he marries model Brooklyn Decker, but the 26-year-old won’t be totally satisfied unless he can put up a standout result at either Wimby or the U.S. Open, which means a title run. The clock is ticking.
Players on the edge: After falling in a series of significant matches, Del Potro saved his first quarter with his incredible win over Nadal and cracked the top five…Fernando Verdasco raised his head in Australia by upsetting Murray and nearly taking down Nadal, and has been fairly consistent since then… Many others haven’t played up to snuff, including Frenchmen Jo Tsonga, Gilles Simon and Gael Monfils, Americans James Blake and Sam Querrey, and youngsters Marin Cilic and Ernests Gulbis.
WOMEN’s TOP 5
Serena Williams: In Miami, Serena complained that the ranking system doesn’t accurately reflect who are the tour’s best players, because she was about to lose her top spot to Dinara Safina, who had bombed out in two straight tournaments. But like she has much of her career, Serena has been unable to sustain her brilliance for more than a month at a time, which is why she’s title-less since Australia. After beating Venus in a classic semi in Miami, she came into her final against Azarenka hobbled and was run off the court. However, her main goal this season is to win her second French Open, and you can bet she’ll show up and fight like hell.
Vera Zvonareva: The understated Russian reached the Aussie semis and won the IW title for her first premier crown. She may have too much of a non-descript personality to garner major headlines, but she’s an authoritative grinder who’ll hang around the top five all year long.
Victoria Azarenka: The aggressive all-courter is temperamental, but has learned to channel her anger and frustration into a searing attack, which is why she won Miami and rose to No. 8. She’s an excellent athlete who knows how to win matches and, unlike some of the other teens, doesn’t usually back off in the big moments. The Belarusian is clearly a top-five threat, but now that she’s a known quantity, it will be interesting to see whether she has the inner fortitude to withstand the pressure of being called a real Slam contender.
Venus Williams: Venus picked up steam after being shocked at the Australian Open by Spaniard Carla Suarez Navarro, winning Dubai and then forcefully attacking in Miami until the third set of her loss to Serena, where she lost confidence in her serve and return. The 28-year-old will be the favorite to win her sixth Wimby title, but will she ever win another major off grass?
Diana Safina: It’s a toss-up between her and fellow Russian Elena Dementieva as to who has had a more up-and-down start to the year, but it’s clear that both women started fast and faded after the Aussie Open. Safina reached the final there in admirable fashion, but then put on confused, uninspired performances at Indian Wells and Miami. With Serena skipping IW and then getting hurt, Safina rose to No. 1 in late April, but says she must prove she deserves the spot.
Players on the edge: As delightful as they are off court, both the Serbians, Jankovic and Ivanovic, have been painful to watch on court. French Open champ Ivanovic did play reasonably well in reaching the IW final, but she still hasn’t shown the form we saw in the first half of ‘08. Jankovic, who ended ‘08 at No. 1, has admittedly been a basket case and may not be heard from in a big way until mid-summer…After failing to knock off Serena in the Aussie semis, Dementieva lost some motivation, but seems pumped up for Paris. Outside of Azarenka, only Caroline Wozniacki has been somewhat impressive. But fellow teens Agnieszka Radwanska, Alize Cornet or Dominika Cibulkova are sputtering. Maria Sharapova’s failure to get back on court outside of one doubles match was disheartening too, but expect some hungry play from the three-time Slam champ when she returns in May.
